京津冀地区产业结构与就业结构关联分析
|
摘要
就产业结构与就业结构之间协调发展的现状来看,京津冀地区都处于不同阶段,三地的优势与发展阻碍各不相同。运用灰色关联分析法,通过计算各产业就业人数比重、总就业人数与产业结构系数的灰色关联度,分析了京津冀13个城市1996-2016年间三次产业结构的变动对于就业结构的影响。同时结合产业结构的合理化程度,对京津冀地区产业结构合理化程度与就业结构进行分析。考虑到各产业的重要程度,使用修正后的产业结构合理化指数为新指标,揭示了20年来京津冀地区产业结构与就业结构的发展状况,明确了河北省就业结构转变滞后于产业结构转变的事实,并提出在"协同发展"的战略基础之上,促进就业结构和产业结构协调发展的建议。
In terms of the current situation of coordinated development between industrial structure and employment structure, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is at different stages, and the advantages and development obstacles of the three regions are different. By calculating the grey relational grade among the proportion of employees in each industry, the total number of employees and the industrial structure coefficient, this paper analyzes the impact of three industrial structure changes on the employment structure in 13 cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Circle from 1996 to 2016 by the Grey Relational Analysis(GRA) method. In combination with the rationalization degree of industrial structure, this paper also analyzes the rationalization degree of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Considering the important degree of each industry, this paper use adjusted the industrial structure rationalization index as new indexes, it indicates the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's development situation of industrial structure and employment structure in last 20 years, and pinpoints the fact that the transformation of Hebei province's employment structure lags behind its industrial structure, meanwhile, this paper propounds to promote the harmonious development between the employment structure and industrial structure based on the coordinated development strategy.
In terms of the current situation of coordinated development between industrial structure and employment structure, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is at different stages, and the advantages and development obstacles of the three regions are different. By calculating the grey relational grade among the proportion of employees in each industry, the total number of employees and the industrial structure coefficient, this paper analyzes the impact of three industrial structure changes on the employment structure in 13 cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Circle from 1996 to 2016 by the Grey Relational Analysis(GRA) method. In combination with the rationalization degree of industrial structure, this paper also analyzes the rationalization degree of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Considering the important degree of each industry, this paper use adjusted the industrial structure rationalization index as new indexes, it indicates the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's development situation of industrial structure and employment structure in last 20 years, and pinpoints the fact that the transformation of Hebei province's employment structure lags behind its industrial structure, meanwhile, this paper propounds to promote the harmonious development between the employment structure and industrial structure based on the coordinated development strategy.
引文
[1] Fisher A G B.Production,primary,secondary and tertiary[J].Economic record,1939,15(1):24-38.
[2] Clark C.The Conditions of Economic Progress[M].Macmillan,1957(3).
[3]William Petty.Political arithmetic [M].Commercial Press,1978.
[4] John Maynard Keynes.The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money.XiAn:Shaanxi Peoples Publishing House.2005.
[5]Fabien Postel-vinay.2002.The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment.Internation Economic Review,43,pp.737-760.
[6]Tomasz Rachwa?倰.Transformations of the employment structure as an Expression of the Transformation of Polish Industry against the Background of the European Union[J].Bulletin of Geography Socio-economic Series,2011:5-26.
[7]陆梦娟.我国产业结构与就业结构的灰色关联度实证分析[J].沈阳大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(04):426-430.
[8]齐爽,王琪.河北省就业结构与产业结构的协调性分析[J].商场现代化,2018,(18):184-185.
[9]岳志春,张晓蕊.京津冀产业协同发展的障碍及对策[J].人民论坛,2018,(29):76-77.
[10]邓聚龙.社会经济灰色系统的理论与方法[J].中国社会科学,1984,(06):47-60.
[11]冯艳.辽宁省产业结构与就业结构的灰色关联度分析[J].沈阳师范大学学报(社会科学版),2011,35(04):35-37.
[12]原毅军,董琨.节能减排约束下的中国产业结构优化问题研究[J].工业技术经济,2008,(08):53-55.
[13]干春晖.《中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响》[A].上海学术报告(2012-2013)[C].上海市社会科学界联合会,2015:2.
[14]关雪凌,丁振辉.日本产业结构变迁与经济增长[J].世界经济研究,2012,(07):80-86+89.
[15]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业政策推动地方产业结构升级了吗?——基于发展型地方政府的理论解释与实证检验[J].经济研究,2017,52(08):33-48.
[2] Clark C.The Conditions of Economic Progress[M].Macmillan,1957(3).
[3]William Petty.Political arithmetic [M].Commercial Press,1978.
[4] John Maynard Keynes.The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money.XiAn:Shaanxi Peoples Publishing House.2005.
[5]Fabien Postel-vinay.2002.The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment.Internation Economic Review,43,pp.737-760.
[6]Tomasz Rachwa?倰.Transformations of the employment structure as an Expression of the Transformation of Polish Industry against the Background of the European Union[J].Bulletin of Geography Socio-economic Series,2011:5-26.
[7]陆梦娟.我国产业结构与就业结构的灰色关联度实证分析[J].沈阳大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(04):426-430.
[8]齐爽,王琪.河北省就业结构与产业结构的协调性分析[J].商场现代化,2018,(18):184-185.
[9]岳志春,张晓蕊.京津冀产业协同发展的障碍及对策[J].人民论坛,2018,(29):76-77.
[10]邓聚龙.社会经济灰色系统的理论与方法[J].中国社会科学,1984,(06):47-60.
[11]冯艳.辽宁省产业结构与就业结构的灰色关联度分析[J].沈阳师范大学学报(社会科学版),2011,35(04):35-37.
[12]原毅军,董琨.节能减排约束下的中国产业结构优化问题研究[J].工业技术经济,2008,(08):53-55.
[13]干春晖.《中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响》[A].上海学术报告(2012-2013)[C].上海市社会科学界联合会,2015:2.
[14]关雪凌,丁振辉.日本产业结构变迁与经济增长[J].世界经济研究,2012,(07):80-86+89.
[15]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业政策推动地方产业结构升级了吗?——基于发展型地方政府的理论解释与实证检验[J].经济研究,2017,52(08):33-48.