重庆市生育水平、生育意愿及生育成本
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摘要
文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据的重庆样本,分析了重庆市2006～2016年间的生育水平,研究发现这11年间重庆市总和生育率有升有降,2007、2012和2016年超过1.8,分别为1.896、1.853和1.891,平均为1.61。相比较,11年间重庆市递进总和生育率平均值为1.83,2006～2016年间,重庆市二孩递进总和生育率平均值为0.76。文章分析了生育意愿,调查发现尽管全面两孩政策的后期效果可能会持续显现,但受多因素影响,仍有38.1%的女性打算生育孩子数少于2个,重庆市女性在生育孩子数量方面存在理想和现实的距离,内生性低生育趋势仍值得警惕。抚养成本依然是影响女性生育的主要因素。加快推进生育友好型社会建设,创建良好的生育环境,有助于完善生育服务,提升生育水平。
Using data from the Chongqing sub-sample of 2017 China National Fertility Survey, this paper examines fertility trends in Chongqing from 2006 to 2016. There are considerable fluctuations in total fertility rate(TFR) in Chongqing, with an average of 1.61. In 2007, 2012 and 2016, the TFRs exceed 1.8, reaching 1.896, 1.853 and 1.891 respectively. On average, the TFR based on parity progression ratio during the past 11 years is 1.83 and the second child TFR based on parity progression ratio stands around 0.76. Under the universal two-child policy, about 38.1% of women, driven by many factors, still want to have fewer than two children. There is a gap between the ideal number of children and the children born by women in Chongqing. Attentions need to be paid to the endogenous low fertility patterns. Childbearing and childrearing costs are one of the major factors affecting women's fertility. A more fertility-friendly society and better fertility environment will help raise fertility rate.
Using data from the Chongqing sub-sample of 2017 China National Fertility Survey, this paper examines fertility trends in Chongqing from 2006 to 2016. There are considerable fluctuations in total fertility rate(TFR) in Chongqing, with an average of 1.61. In 2007, 2012 and 2016, the TFRs exceed 1.8, reaching 1.896, 1.853 and 1.891 respectively. On average, the TFR based on parity progression ratio during the past 11 years is 1.83 and the second child TFR based on parity progression ratio stands around 0.76. Under the universal two-child policy, about 38.1% of women, driven by many factors, still want to have fewer than two children. There is a gap between the ideal number of children and the children born by women in Chongqing. Attentions need to be paid to the endogenous low fertility patterns. Childbearing and childrearing costs are one of the major factors affecting women's fertility. A more fertility-friendly society and better fertility environment will help raise fertility rate.
引文
1 Preston,Samuel H.,Patrick Heuveline,and Michel Guillot.2001.Demography:Measuring and Modeling Population Processes.Blackwell Publishers.
2 Keyfitz,N.1985.Applied Mathematical Demography.Springer-Verlag.New York.Second Edition.
3 Feeney,G.and Yu,J.1987.Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China.Population Studies 1:77-102.
4 Rallu,J.L.and Toulemon,L.1994.Period Fertility Measures:The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France,1946-89.Population an English Selection 1:59-93.
5 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018;4:104-112Zhuang Yaer,Yang Shenghui,Qi Jianan,Li Bohua and Wang Zhili.2018.2017 China Fertility Survey:Practice and Reflections.Population Research 4:104-112.
6 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018;6:35-45He Dan,Zhang Xuying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui.2018.A Report on Fertility Status in China from 2006-2016 Based on the Data Analysis of the 2017 National Fertility Status Sampling Survey.Population Research 6:35-45.
7 陈卫,高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应.人口研究,2013;3:11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang.2013.Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China.Population Research 3:11-28.
8 翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙.现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少?——来自户籍登记数据的新证据.人口研究,2015;6:22-34Zhai Zhenwu,Chen Jiaju and Li Long.2015.China's Recent Total Fertility Rate:New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics.Population Research 6:22-34.
9 郭志刚.从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究.人口研究,2000;1:7-18Guo Zhigang.2000.Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women:A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior.Population Research 1:7-18.
10 马瀛通,王彦祖,杨书章.递进人口发展模型的提出与总和递进指标体系的确立.人口与经济,1986;2:40-43Ma Yingtong,Wang Yanzu and Yang Shuzhang.1986.The Proposal of Progression Model of Population Development and the Establishment of Index of Parity Progression Total Fertility Rate.Population & Economics 2:40-43.
11 Rallu,Jean-Louis and Laurent Toulemon.1994.Period Fertility Measures:The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France,1946-89.Population,An English Selection 6:59-94.
2 Keyfitz,N.1985.Applied Mathematical Demography.Springer-Verlag.New York.Second Edition.
3 Feeney,G.and Yu,J.1987.Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China.Population Studies 1:77-102.
4 Rallu,J.L.and Toulemon,L.1994.Period Fertility Measures:The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France,1946-89.Population an English Selection 1:59-93.
5 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018;4:104-112Zhuang Yaer,Yang Shenghui,Qi Jianan,Li Bohua and Wang Zhili.2018.2017 China Fertility Survey:Practice and Reflections.Population Research 4:104-112.
6 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018;6:35-45He Dan,Zhang Xuying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui.2018.A Report on Fertility Status in China from 2006-2016 Based on the Data Analysis of the 2017 National Fertility Status Sampling Survey.Population Research 6:35-45.
7 陈卫,高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应.人口研究,2013;3:11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang.2013.Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China.Population Research 3:11-28.
8 翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙.现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少?——来自户籍登记数据的新证据.人口研究,2015;6:22-34Zhai Zhenwu,Chen Jiaju and Li Long.2015.China's Recent Total Fertility Rate:New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics.Population Research 6:22-34.
9 郭志刚.从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究.人口研究,2000;1:7-18Guo Zhigang.2000.Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women:A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior.Population Research 1:7-18.
10 马瀛通,王彦祖,杨书章.递进人口发展模型的提出与总和递进指标体系的确立.人口与经济,1986;2:40-43Ma Yingtong,Wang Yanzu and Yang Shuzhang.1986.The Proposal of Progression Model of Population Development and the Establishment of Index of Parity Progression Total Fertility Rate.Population & Economics 2:40-43.
11 Rallu,Jean-Louis and Laurent Toulemon.1994.Period Fertility Measures:The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France,1946-89.Population,An English Selection 6:59-94.