中国人口转变的经济增长效应与人力资本效应检验——基于1990-2013年省级面板数据
|
摘要
为了分析人口转变对中国经济增长的影响,利用1990-2013年我国31个省级行政区相关数据构建面板数据模型进行检验.结果表明:研究期内我国人口转变带来了2个有利于经济增长的红利效应,一是劳动力数量的充足供给,二是老年人口增多导致社会储蓄增加带来的资本积累,这2个效应都直接或间接地促进了经济增长;在此基础上,将人口年龄结构与教育水平相结合,进一步研究了人口红利作用下的人力资本效应.从全国层面来看,人力资本效应显著,从地区层面来看,东部地区的人力资本效应显著,而中、西部地区不显著.
In order to study the effects of the demographic dividend on economic growth, a panel data model has been built with 31 provincial data from 1990 to 2013. The results show the demographic transition brought two bonus effects to promote the economic growth: one is the sufficient supply of labor force; another is increasing savings effect resulting from the increase in the elderly population. These two effects both promote China's economic growth directly or indirectly. Second, we combine the population age structure and the level of education to analyze the role of human capital of demographic dividend. The results show that the effect of human capital is significant from the national level; for the regional level, the human capital of the eastern region is significant, while the middle and western regions are not significant.
In order to study the effects of the demographic dividend on economic growth, a panel data model has been built with 31 provincial data from 1990 to 2013. The results show the demographic transition brought two bonus effects to promote the economic growth: one is the sufficient supply of labor force; another is increasing savings effect resulting from the increase in the elderly population. These two effects both promote China's economic growth directly or indirectly. Second, we combine the population age structure and the level of education to analyze the role of human capital of demographic dividend. The results show that the effect of human capital is significant from the national level; for the regional level, the human capital of the eastern region is significant, while the middle and western regions are not significant.
引文
[1] WILLIAMSON J G,HIGGINS M.The Accumulation and Demography Connection in East Asia [M]//Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia:Challenges Met,Opportunities Seized.Palo Alto:Stanford University Press,2001:123-154.
[2] BLOOM D E,CANNING D,SEVILLA J.The Demographic Dividend:a New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change [M].Santa Monica:RAND Corporation,2003.
[3] 李蕾,郑长德.中国“人口红利”问题研究综述 [J].珠江经济,2008(4):51-57.
[4] BLOOM D E,WILLIAMSON J G.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia [J].World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3):419-455.
[5] WILLIAMSON J G.Migrant Selectivity,Urbanization,and Industrial Revolutions [J].Population and Development Review,1988,14(2):287-314.
[6] 丁仁船,张航空.中国“人口红利”研究现状与评述 [J].长春理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012,25(8):61-62.
[7] MASON A,LEE R.Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend [J].Genus,2006,62(2):11-35.
[8] LEE R.The Demographic Transition:Three Centuries of Fundamental Change [J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2003,17(4):167-190.
[9] GALOR O.From Stagnation to Growth:Unified Growth Theory [M]//Handbook of Economic Growth.Amsterdam:Elsevier Science B.V.,2005.
[10] 汪小勤,汪红梅.“人口红利”效应与中国经济增长 [J].经济学家,2007(1):104-110.
[11] 王德文.人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长 [J].中国人口科学,2007(1):44-52.
[12] 蔡昉.中国人口红利正在消失 [J].中国报道,2008(4):46-48.
[13] 原新.未来中国人口面临五大转折 [J].中国国情国力,2006(6):45-47.
[14] 刘家强,唐代盛.关于人口红利问题的几点思考 [J].市场与人口分析,2007(4):33-35.
[15] 车士义,陈卫,郭琳.中国经济增长中的人口红利 [J].人口与经济,2011(3):16-23.
[16] 王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素 [J].人口研究,2004,28(5):2-11.
[17] 蔡昉.人口转变、 人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长 [J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[18] 袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构,养老保险制度与最优储蓄率 [J].经济研究,2000,35(11):24-32.
[19] 贺菊煌.人口红利有多大 [J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(7):24-35.
[20] 蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓 [J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[21] BLOOM D E,CANNING D,HU L,et al.The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India [J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2010,38(1):17-33.
[22] DRUMMOND P,THAKOOR V J,SHU YU.Africa Rising:Harnessing the Demographic Dividend [J].IMF Working Papers,2014,14(143).
[23] 汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素——基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析 [J].财经研究,2008,34(2):53-64.
[24] 尹银,周俊山.人口红利在中国经济增长中的作用——基于省级面板数据的研究 [J].南开经济研究,2012(2):120-130.
[25] KRUEGER A B,LINDAHL M.Education for Growth:Why and for Whom?[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2001,39(4):1101-1136.
[26] 蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久 [J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.
[27] 李晓阳,赵宏磊,张琦.人口老龄化、 劳动力流动与经济增长——基于中国西部十省面板数据模型的实证 [J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(4):76-84.
[28] 何海林,涂建军,孙祥龙,等.中国人口结构与经济结构耦合的关联分析 [J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,35(10):140-145.
[29] 郑丽,孜比布拉·司马义,颉渊,等.新疆人口城镇化与经济城镇化的时空变化分析 [J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,41(3):131-138.
[2] BLOOM D E,CANNING D,SEVILLA J.The Demographic Dividend:a New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change [M].Santa Monica:RAND Corporation,2003.
[3] 李蕾,郑长德.中国“人口红利”问题研究综述 [J].珠江经济,2008(4):51-57.
[4] BLOOM D E,WILLIAMSON J G.Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia [J].World Bank Economic Review,1998,12(3):419-455.
[5] WILLIAMSON J G.Migrant Selectivity,Urbanization,and Industrial Revolutions [J].Population and Development Review,1988,14(2):287-314.
[6] 丁仁船,张航空.中国“人口红利”研究现状与评述 [J].长春理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012,25(8):61-62.
[7] MASON A,LEE R.Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend [J].Genus,2006,62(2):11-35.
[8] LEE R.The Demographic Transition:Three Centuries of Fundamental Change [J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2003,17(4):167-190.
[9] GALOR O.From Stagnation to Growth:Unified Growth Theory [M]//Handbook of Economic Growth.Amsterdam:Elsevier Science B.V.,2005.
[10] 汪小勤,汪红梅.“人口红利”效应与中国经济增长 [J].经济学家,2007(1):104-110.
[11] 王德文.人口低生育率阶段的劳动力供求变化与中国经济增长 [J].中国人口科学,2007(1):44-52.
[12] 蔡昉.中国人口红利正在消失 [J].中国报道,2008(4):46-48.
[13] 原新.未来中国人口面临五大转折 [J].中国国情国力,2006(6):45-47.
[14] 刘家强,唐代盛.关于人口红利问题的几点思考 [J].市场与人口分析,2007(4):33-35.
[15] 车士义,陈卫,郭琳.中国经济增长中的人口红利 [J].人口与经济,2011(3):16-23.
[16] 王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素 [J].人口研究,2004,28(5):2-11.
[17] 蔡昉.人口转变、 人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长 [J].人口研究,2004,28(2):2-9.
[18] 袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构,养老保险制度与最优储蓄率 [J].经济研究,2000,35(11):24-32.
[19] 贺菊煌.人口红利有多大 [J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(7):24-35.
[20] 蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓 [J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[21] BLOOM D E,CANNING D,HU L,et al.The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India [J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2010,38(1):17-33.
[22] DRUMMOND P,THAKOOR V J,SHU YU.Africa Rising:Harnessing the Demographic Dividend [J].IMF Working Papers,2014,14(143).
[23] 汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素——基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析 [J].财经研究,2008,34(2):53-64.
[24] 尹银,周俊山.人口红利在中国经济增长中的作用——基于省级面板数据的研究 [J].南开经济研究,2012(2):120-130.
[25] KRUEGER A B,LINDAHL M.Education for Growth:Why and for Whom?[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2001,39(4):1101-1136.
[26] 蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久 [J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.
[27] 李晓阳,赵宏磊,张琦.人口老龄化、 劳动力流动与经济增长——基于中国西部十省面板数据模型的实证 [J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(4):76-84.
[28] 何海林,涂建军,孙祥龙,等.中国人口结构与经济结构耦合的关联分析 [J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,35(10):140-145.
[29] 郑丽,孜比布拉·司马义,颉渊,等.新疆人口城镇化与经济城镇化的时空变化分析 [J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,41(3):131-138.