中国镍资源供应安全评价与对策研究
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摘要
镍是中国紧缺的矿产资源。近年来,由于镍在不锈钢、新能源电池中的大量使用,中国镍资源面临严峻的供应形势。为深入研究中国镍资源的供应安全问题,本文从镍资源存量状况、资源供需状况、资源开发状况、国际产销状况、国际市场价格状况5个维度构建中国镍资源供应安全评价指标体系,首先运用熵值法计算2000—2016年中国镍资源各年的供应安全综合得分,然后运用雷达法分析影响2016年中国镍资源供应安全的主要因素。结果显示:2000—2016年中国镍资源供应安全综合得分持续下降,供应风险不断增加;储量下降、消费量增加、地质勘查投入减少、对国外资源依赖较大、主要进口国政策变化较大等因素是影响中国镍资源供应安全的主要因素。根据评价结果,本文提出以下安全对策:加大镍矿勘探投入,提高镍资源开发水平;提高二次回收率,加强不锈钢领域节镍技术研发;开拓国外镍矿资源市场。这些措施将有助于提高中国镍资源的供应安全保障水平。
Nickel is a scarce mineral resource in China. In recent years, China's nickel resources are facing a severe supply situation due to the extensive use of nickel in stainless steel and new energy batteries. In order to study the supply security of China's nickel resources, an evaluation index system for the supply security of nickel resources in China from domestic safety sources and foreign safety sources is constructed in the paper. The two security sources include five security categories: resource stock, resource supply and demand, resource development, international production and marketing, and international market price. There are one or two safety indicators in each security category, and there are eight safety indicators in total. According to the index system, the comprehensive score of China's nickel resources supply security from 2000 to 2016 is calculated by using the entropy method, and then the radar method is used to try to find out the main factors affecting the safety of China's nickel resources supply in 2016. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive score of China's nickel resources supply security continued to decline and the supply risk continued to increase in 2000-2016.In 2016, factors affecting supply safety were mainly reduced reserves, increased consumption, great dependence on foreign resources, reduced investment in exploration, great policy changes in major importing countries, and the concentration of world nickel production. According to the results of the evaluation, a number of security measures were put forward: increasing the investment in exploration,improving the development level, improving the two recovery rates, strengthening the research and development of nickel resource saving technology in the stainless steel industry, and developing a foreign market of nickel resources. The targeted policy recommendations will help to improve the safety level of nickel supply in China in the future.
Nickel is a scarce mineral resource in China. In recent years, China's nickel resources are facing a severe supply situation due to the extensive use of nickel in stainless steel and new energy batteries. In order to study the supply security of China's nickel resources, an evaluation index system for the supply security of nickel resources in China from domestic safety sources and foreign safety sources is constructed in the paper. The two security sources include five security categories: resource stock, resource supply and demand, resource development, international production and marketing, and international market price. There are one or two safety indicators in each security category, and there are eight safety indicators in total. According to the index system, the comprehensive score of China's nickel resources supply security from 2000 to 2016 is calculated by using the entropy method, and then the radar method is used to try to find out the main factors affecting the safety of China's nickel resources supply in 2016. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive score of China's nickel resources supply security continued to decline and the supply risk continued to increase in 2000-2016.In 2016, factors affecting supply safety were mainly reduced reserves, increased consumption, great dependence on foreign resources, reduced investment in exploration, great policy changes in major importing countries, and the concentration of world nickel production. According to the results of the evaluation, a number of security measures were put forward: increasing the investment in exploration,improving the development level, improving the two recovery rates, strengthening the research and development of nickel resource saving technology in the stainless steel industry, and developing a foreign market of nickel resources. The targeted policy recommendations will help to improve the safety level of nickel supply in China in the future.
引文
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