长江经济带经济增长对工业环境污染的动态影响——基于状态空间模型研究
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摘要
运用状态空间变参数模型,考虑产业结构、城镇化等控制变量因素,分别检验2003—2016年长江经济带区域经济增长对工业"三废"的动态影响。结果表明:长江经济带经济增长中对工业"三废"影响最大的是单位生产总值能耗,对人均工业废水排放量影响较大的是第二产业占GDP比重。工业"三废"状态空间模型中的一次项、二次项和三次项系数总体上呈现收敛态势,表明随着经济发展,经济增长对工业"三废"产生的影响逐渐降低。长江经济带工业"三废"环境库兹涅茨曲线形态呈现一定的差异性,表现为"N"、倒"N"和单调递减等多种形态。
This paper uses the State Space Variable Parameter model to examine the dynamic effects of regional economic growth on industrial waste discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016, and considers control variables such as urbanization,industrial structure. The results of the study indicate that: The energy consumption per unit of GDP in the control variables has the greatest impact on industrial waste discharge,and the share of GDP in the secondary industry has a greater impact on the per capita industrial waste discharge. The coefficients ofα1,t,α2,tandα3,tin the State Space Variable Parameter model of industrial waste discharge are generally convergent,indicating that as the economy develops,its impact on the industrial pollution will gradually decrease. The Kuznets curve of industrial waste discharge condition in the Yangtze River Economic Zone shows different forms,including " N",inverted " N" and monotonous decline.
This paper uses the State Space Variable Parameter model to examine the dynamic effects of regional economic growth on industrial waste discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016, and considers control variables such as urbanization,industrial structure. The results of the study indicate that: The energy consumption per unit of GDP in the control variables has the greatest impact on industrial waste discharge,and the share of GDP in the secondary industry has a greater impact on the per capita industrial waste discharge. The coefficients ofα1,t,α2,tandα3,tin the State Space Variable Parameter model of industrial waste discharge are generally convergent,indicating that as the economy develops,its impact on the industrial pollution will gradually decrease. The Kuznets curve of industrial waste discharge condition in the Yangtze River Economic Zone shows different forms,including " N",inverted " N" and monotonous decline.
引文
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[20]朱平辉,袁加军,曾五一.中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):65-74.
[21]符淼.我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(11):40-55.
[2]DASGUPTA P,HEAL G.Economic theory and exhaustible resources[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1979.
[3]GROSSOMAN G,KRUEGER A.Economic growth and environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[4]AKBOSTANCI E,TURUT-ASIK S,TUNC G I.The relationship between income and environment in Turkey:Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve?[J].Energy Policy,2009,37(3):861-867.
[5]SHAHBAZ M,SBIA R,HAMDI H,et al.Economic growth,electricity consumption,urbanization and environmental degradation relationship in United Arab Emirates[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,45(5):622-631.
[6]PANAYOTOU T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[R].Working Paper,No.Wp238,Technology And Employment Programme,International Labor Office,Geneva,1993.
[7]GALEOTTI M,LANZA A,PAULI F.Reassessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emissions:A robustness exercise[J].Ecological Economics,2006,57:152-163.
[8]Al-MULALI U,WENG-WAI C,SHEAU-TING L,et al.Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by utilizing the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,48:315-323.
[9]彭水军,包群.经济增长与环境污染——环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的中国检验[J].财经问题研究,2006(8):3-17.
[10]柯文岚,沙景华,闫晶晶.山西省环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2011,21(12):389-392.
[11]马骏,李亚芳.长江经济带环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(1):106-113.
[12]CAVIGLIA-HARRIS J,CHAMBERS D,KAHN J.Taking the "U" out of Kuznets:A comprehensive analysis of the EKC and Environmental Degradation[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(4):1149-1159.
[13]OZTURK I,Al-MULALI U.Investigating the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Cambodia[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,57:324-330.
[14]BIMONTE S,STABILELAND A.Consumption and income in Italy:a case of inverted EKC[J].Ecological Economics,2017,131:36-43.
[15]马树才,李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染关系的Kuznets曲线[J].统计研究,2006 (8):37-40.
[16]郭嘉铭,金良,董锁成.呼和浩特市环境库兹涅茨曲线与环境影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(4):143-148.
[17]沈永昌,余华银.环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的中国检验——基于PSTR模型的实证研究[J].江南大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(3):117-125.
[18]WANG Y,ZHANG C,LU A T,et al.A disaggregated analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for industrial CO2 emissions in China[J].Applied Energy,2017,190:172-180.
[19]杨林,高宏霞.空间计量模型视角下环境库兹涅茨曲线形成机理研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(7):65-72.
[20]朱平辉,袁加军,曾五一.中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):65-74.
[21]符淼.我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(11):40-55.