农业机械化水平对农户市场化程度的影响——基于人均基本需求农地的门限效应分析
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摘要
运用1 682个农户实地调研数据,通过门限效应模型和样本选择修正模型,分析农业机械化水平对农户市场化程度的影响。结果表明:1)门限效应模型分析得出人均基本需求农地的面积为0.068 hm~2,即人均年基本需求粮食为466.27 kg。2)农业机械化水平对门限前后的农户市场化程度有显著的正向影响,农业机械化水平每增加1个单位,门限前的农户市场化程度就提高0.496个单位,门限后的农户市场化程度就提高0.67个单位。3)自我农机作业方式和外包农机作业方式都对门限前后的农户市场化程度有显著的正向影响。另外,户主不健康和转出土地对农户市场化程度有显著的负向影响,家庭社会资本、粮食价格、人均土地面积、复种指数、平原地区对农户市场化程度有显著的正向影响。建议重点提高平原地区土地适度规模经营程度,关注农户健康问题,增加家庭社会资本,鼓励农户复种经营模式,不断提高农业生产效益,从而促进农户市场化程度的提高。
Based on threshold effect model and Tobit Model,a total of 168 2 samples are used to analyze how agricultural mechanization level affects the marketization degree of the farmers.The results are as follows:1) The per capita basic farmland area is 0.068 hectares,which means the per capita annual basic demand for grains is 466.27 kg through the threshold effect model.2) The farm mechanization has a significant positive impact on the agricultural mechanization level below and above the threshold.Once the agricultural mechanization level increases 1 unit,the marketization degree of the farmers below the threshold will increase 0.496 units while those above will increase 0.67 units.3) Both self-operation and outsource of agricultural machine have significant positive impact on the agricultural mechanization level below and above the threshold.Besides,unhealthy households and turning out the land have significant negative impact on the degree of marketization of farmers while social capital,food price,per capita land area,multiple cropping index,and plain areas have significant positive impact on the marketization of farmers.To further increase agricultural efficiency and improve the marketization degree of the farmers,it is recommended to focus on promoting appropriate scale operation of land in the plain area,paying attention to the farmers' health,increasing family social capital and encouraging farmers to adopt multi-cropping model.
Based on threshold effect model and Tobit Model,a total of 168 2 samples are used to analyze how agricultural mechanization level affects the marketization degree of the farmers.The results are as follows:1) The per capita basic farmland area is 0.068 hectares,which means the per capita annual basic demand for grains is 466.27 kg through the threshold effect model.2) The farm mechanization has a significant positive impact on the agricultural mechanization level below and above the threshold.Once the agricultural mechanization level increases 1 unit,the marketization degree of the farmers below the threshold will increase 0.496 units while those above will increase 0.67 units.3) Both self-operation and outsource of agricultural machine have significant positive impact on the agricultural mechanization level below and above the threshold.Besides,unhealthy households and turning out the land have significant negative impact on the degree of marketization of farmers while social capital,food price,per capita land area,multiple cropping index,and plain areas have significant positive impact on the marketization of farmers.To further increase agricultural efficiency and improve the marketization degree of the farmers,it is recommended to focus on promoting appropriate scale operation of land in the plain area,paying attention to the farmers' health,increasing family social capital and encouraging farmers to adopt multi-cropping model.
引文
[1] 温铁军.中国农村基本经济制度研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2000Wen T J.Research on Basic Economic System in Rural China[M].Beijing:China Economic Press,2000 (in Chinese)
[2] 曹阳,王春超.中国小农市场化:理论与计量研究[J].华中师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2009,48(6):39-47Cao Y,Wang C C.Marketization of China’s small farmers:Theoretical and econometric research[J].Journal of Huangzhong Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences,2009,48(6):39-47 (in Chinese)
[3] 杨少垒.中国特色农业现代化道路探索的历史进程[J].农村经济,2015(10),78-83Yang S L.The historical process of the exploration of agricultural modernization road with Chinese characteristics[J].Rural Economy,2015(10),78-83 (in Chinese)
[4] 龙明芳,黎昌贵,黄秋萍.农户经营市场化与农产品流通[J].经济与管理,2003,17(4):62-64Long M F,Li C G,Huang Q P.The marketization of farmers’ management and the circulation of agricultural products[J].Economy and Management,2003,17(4):62-64 (in Chinese)
[5] 陈宗胜,陈胜.中国农业市场化进程测度[J].经济学家,1999(3):110-118Chen Z S,Chen S.China’s agricultural marketization process measurement[J].Economist,1999(3):110-118 (in Chinese)
[6] 高珊,黄贤金.农村市场化对农户耕地流转的影响:以沪苏皖农户调查为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(7):816-820Gao S,Huang X J.Influence of rural marketization on farmers’ cultivated land transfer:An empirical study based on Shanghai City,Jiangsu and Anhui Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(7):816-820 (in Chinese)
[7] 高珊,黄贤金,钟太洋,陈志刚.农业市场化对农户种植效益的影响:基于沪苏皖农户调查的实证研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1103-1112Gao S,Huang X J.Zhong T Y,Chen Z G.Influence of agricultural marketization on farmers’ planting benefit:An empirical study of Shanghai,Jiangsu and Anhui[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(6):1103-1112 (in Chinese)
[8] 侯建昀,刘军弟.交易成本对农户市场化行为影响研究[J].农业技术经济,2014(8):25-36Hou J Y,Liu J D.Research on the influence of transaction cost on farmers’ marketization behavior[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014(8):25-36 (in Chinese)
[9] 肖芳文,杨国强,郭锦墉.农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响研究:以江西省农户调查为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(2):45-51Xiao F W,Yang G Q,Guo J Y.The impacts of agricultural products market-based on farmer’s land outward transferring:peasant household survey in Jiangxi Province as an example[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2016,37(2):45-51 (in Chinese)
[10] 姚旭兵,罗光强,吴振顺.市场化、财政支农与粮食产出:基于门槛模型的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(3):160-168Yao X B,Luo G Q,Wu Z S.Marketization,financial expenditure for agriculture and food output:An empirical analysis based on threshold model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(3):160-168 (in Chinese)
[11] 伍骏骞,方师乐,李谷成,徐广彤.中国农业机械化发展水平对粮食产量的空间溢出效应分析:基于跨区作业的视角[J].中国农村经济,2017(6):44-57Wu J Q,Fang S L,Li G C,Xu G T.The spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on grain output in China:From the perspective of cross-regional mechanization service[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2017(6):44-57 (in Chinese)
[12] 刘超,朱满德,陈其兰.农业机械化对我国粮食生产的影响:产出效应、结构效应和外溢效应[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(4),591-600Liu C,Zhu M D,Chen Q L.The effect of agricultural mechanization on grain production in China:Output effect,structure effec and spillover effect[J].Agricultural Modernization Research,2018,39(4),591-600 (in Chinese)
[13] 周振,马庆超,孔祥智.农业机械化对农村劳动力转移贡献的量化研究[J].农业技术经济,2016(2):52-62Zhou Z,Ma Q C,Kong X Z.Quantitative research on the contribution of agricultural mechanization to rural labor transfer[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(2):52-62 (in Chinese)
[14] 钟甫宁,陆五一,徐志刚.农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?:对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):36-47Zhong F N,Lu W Y,Xu Z G.Is it difficult for rural labor to go out to work in grain production?:Analysis of the substitution and planting structure adjustment behavior and constraints of farmers[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2016(7):36-47 (in Chinese)
[15] 王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测度及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19Wang B Y,Zhang W G.A research of agricultural eco-efficiency measure in China and space-time differences[J].China Population·Resources and Environment,2016,26(6):11-19 (in Chinese)
[16] 罗锡文,廖娟,胡炼,臧英,周志艳.提高农业机械化水平促进农业可持续发展[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):1-11Luo X W,Liao J,Hu L,Zang Y,Zhou Z Y.Improving agricultural mechanization level to promote agricultural sustainable development[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(1):1-11 (in Chinese)
[17] 李显刚.现代农机专业合作社是创新农业经营主体的成功探索[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(9):25-29Li X G.Modern agricultural machinery professional cooperatives are the successful exploration of innovative agricultural management entities[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013,34(9):25-29 (in Chinese)
[18] 李琳凤,李孟刚.当前影响我国粮食生产的主要因素分析[J].中国流通经济,2012,26(4):109-115Li L F,Li M G.The analysis on the influencing factors of grain production in the light of the current situation of China[J].China Business and Market,2012,26(4):109-115 (in Chinese)
[19] 高启杰.中国农业技术创新模式及其相关制度研究[J].中国农村观察,2004(2):53-60,81Gao Q J.China’s models and mechanism of technological innovation in agriculture[J].China Rural Survey,2004(2):53-60,81 (in Chinese)
[20] 胡小平,郭晓慧.2020年中国粮食需求结构分析及预测:基于营养标准的视角[J].中国农村经济,2010(6):4-15Hu X P,Guo X H.Analysis and forecast of China’s grain demand structure in 2020:Based on the perspective of nutritional standards[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2010(6):4-15 (in Chinese)
[21] 洪炜杰,陈小知,胡新艳.劳动力转移规模对农户农地流转行为的影响:基于门槛值的验证分析[J].农业技术经济,2016(11):14-23Hong W J,Chen X Z,Hu X Y.The impact of labor transfer scale on farmers’ farmland transfer behavior:Based on the validation analysis of threshold value[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(11):14-23 (in Chinese)
[22] Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603
[23] 樊纲,王小鲁,张立文.中国各地区市场化进程2000年报告[J].国家行政学院学报,2001(3):17-27Fan G,Wang X L,Zhang L W.2000 Report on the marketization process of China’s regions[J].Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance,2001(3):17-27 (in Chinese)
[24] 彭继权,吴海涛.家庭生命周期视角下农户多维贫困影响因素研究[J].世界经济文汇,2017(6):72-87Peng J Q,Wu H T.Research on the factors affecting farmers’ multidimensional poverty from the perspective of family life cycle[J].World Economic Papers,2017(6):72-87 (in Chinese)
[25] Card D,Krueger A B.School resources and student outcomes:An overview of the literature and new evidence from North and South Carolina[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1996,10(4):31-50
[26] Staiger D,Stock J H.Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments[J].Econometrica,1997,65(3):557-586
[27] Stock J H,Yogo M.Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2005
① 由于篇幅所限,本研究没有列出LIML的工具变量估计结果,感兴趣的读者可以向本研究作者索取。
(1)源于2018年中央一号文件《中共中央国务院关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》。
(2)数据来源:湖北省农业厅,2016年,湖北省主要农作物耕种收综合机械化水平达67.4%。
(3)数据来源:中华人民共和国自然资源部。
(4)数据来源:2017国家统计局。
[2] 曹阳,王春超.中国小农市场化:理论与计量研究[J].华中师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2009,48(6):39-47Cao Y,Wang C C.Marketization of China’s small farmers:Theoretical and econometric research[J].Journal of Huangzhong Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences,2009,48(6):39-47 (in Chinese)
[3] 杨少垒.中国特色农业现代化道路探索的历史进程[J].农村经济,2015(10),78-83Yang S L.The historical process of the exploration of agricultural modernization road with Chinese characteristics[J].Rural Economy,2015(10),78-83 (in Chinese)
[4] 龙明芳,黎昌贵,黄秋萍.农户经营市场化与农产品流通[J].经济与管理,2003,17(4):62-64Long M F,Li C G,Huang Q P.The marketization of farmers’ management and the circulation of agricultural products[J].Economy and Management,2003,17(4):62-64 (in Chinese)
[5] 陈宗胜,陈胜.中国农业市场化进程测度[J].经济学家,1999(3):110-118Chen Z S,Chen S.China’s agricultural marketization process measurement[J].Economist,1999(3):110-118 (in Chinese)
[6] 高珊,黄贤金.农村市场化对农户耕地流转的影响:以沪苏皖农户调查为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(7):816-820Gao S,Huang X J.Influence of rural marketization on farmers’ cultivated land transfer:An empirical study based on Shanghai City,Jiangsu and Anhui Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(7):816-820 (in Chinese)
[7] 高珊,黄贤金,钟太洋,陈志刚.农业市场化对农户种植效益的影响:基于沪苏皖农户调查的实证研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1103-1112Gao S,Huang X J.Zhong T Y,Chen Z G.Influence of agricultural marketization on farmers’ planting benefit:An empirical study of Shanghai,Jiangsu and Anhui[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(6):1103-1112 (in Chinese)
[8] 侯建昀,刘军弟.交易成本对农户市场化行为影响研究[J].农业技术经济,2014(8):25-36Hou J Y,Liu J D.Research on the influence of transaction cost on farmers’ marketization behavior[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014(8):25-36 (in Chinese)
[9] 肖芳文,杨国强,郭锦墉.农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响研究:以江西省农户调查为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(2):45-51Xiao F W,Yang G Q,Guo J Y.The impacts of agricultural products market-based on farmer’s land outward transferring:peasant household survey in Jiangxi Province as an example[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2016,37(2):45-51 (in Chinese)
[10] 姚旭兵,罗光强,吴振顺.市场化、财政支农与粮食产出:基于门槛模型的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(3):160-168Yao X B,Luo G Q,Wu Z S.Marketization,financial expenditure for agriculture and food output:An empirical analysis based on threshold model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(3):160-168 (in Chinese)
[11] 伍骏骞,方师乐,李谷成,徐广彤.中国农业机械化发展水平对粮食产量的空间溢出效应分析:基于跨区作业的视角[J].中国农村经济,2017(6):44-57Wu J Q,Fang S L,Li G C,Xu G T.The spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on grain output in China:From the perspective of cross-regional mechanization service[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2017(6):44-57 (in Chinese)
[12] 刘超,朱满德,陈其兰.农业机械化对我国粮食生产的影响:产出效应、结构效应和外溢效应[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(4),591-600Liu C,Zhu M D,Chen Q L.The effect of agricultural mechanization on grain production in China:Output effect,structure effec and spillover effect[J].Agricultural Modernization Research,2018,39(4),591-600 (in Chinese)
[13] 周振,马庆超,孔祥智.农业机械化对农村劳动力转移贡献的量化研究[J].农业技术经济,2016(2):52-62Zhou Z,Ma Q C,Kong X Z.Quantitative research on the contribution of agricultural mechanization to rural labor transfer[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(2):52-62 (in Chinese)
[14] 钟甫宁,陆五一,徐志刚.农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?:对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):36-47Zhong F N,Lu W Y,Xu Z G.Is it difficult for rural labor to go out to work in grain production?:Analysis of the substitution and planting structure adjustment behavior and constraints of farmers[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2016(7):36-47 (in Chinese)
[15] 王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测度及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19Wang B Y,Zhang W G.A research of agricultural eco-efficiency measure in China and space-time differences[J].China Population·Resources and Environment,2016,26(6):11-19 (in Chinese)
[16] 罗锡文,廖娟,胡炼,臧英,周志艳.提高农业机械化水平促进农业可持续发展[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):1-11Luo X W,Liao J,Hu L,Zang Y,Zhou Z Y.Improving agricultural mechanization level to promote agricultural sustainable development[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(1):1-11 (in Chinese)
[17] 李显刚.现代农机专业合作社是创新农业经营主体的成功探索[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(9):25-29Li X G.Modern agricultural machinery professional cooperatives are the successful exploration of innovative agricultural management entities[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013,34(9):25-29 (in Chinese)
[18] 李琳凤,李孟刚.当前影响我国粮食生产的主要因素分析[J].中国流通经济,2012,26(4):109-115Li L F,Li M G.The analysis on the influencing factors of grain production in the light of the current situation of China[J].China Business and Market,2012,26(4):109-115 (in Chinese)
[19] 高启杰.中国农业技术创新模式及其相关制度研究[J].中国农村观察,2004(2):53-60,81Gao Q J.China’s models and mechanism of technological innovation in agriculture[J].China Rural Survey,2004(2):53-60,81 (in Chinese)
[20] 胡小平,郭晓慧.2020年中国粮食需求结构分析及预测:基于营养标准的视角[J].中国农村经济,2010(6):4-15Hu X P,Guo X H.Analysis and forecast of China’s grain demand structure in 2020:Based on the perspective of nutritional standards[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2010(6):4-15 (in Chinese)
[21] 洪炜杰,陈小知,胡新艳.劳动力转移规模对农户农地流转行为的影响:基于门槛值的验证分析[J].农业技术经济,2016(11):14-23Hong W J,Chen X Z,Hu X Y.The impact of labor transfer scale on farmers’ farmland transfer behavior:Based on the validation analysis of threshold value[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016(11):14-23 (in Chinese)
[22] Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603
[23] 樊纲,王小鲁,张立文.中国各地区市场化进程2000年报告[J].国家行政学院学报,2001(3):17-27Fan G,Wang X L,Zhang L W.2000 Report on the marketization process of China’s regions[J].Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance,2001(3):17-27 (in Chinese)
[24] 彭继权,吴海涛.家庭生命周期视角下农户多维贫困影响因素研究[J].世界经济文汇,2017(6):72-87Peng J Q,Wu H T.Research on the factors affecting farmers’ multidimensional poverty from the perspective of family life cycle[J].World Economic Papers,2017(6):72-87 (in Chinese)
[25] Card D,Krueger A B.School resources and student outcomes:An overview of the literature and new evidence from North and South Carolina[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1996,10(4):31-50
[26] Staiger D,Stock J H.Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments[J].Econometrica,1997,65(3):557-586
[27] Stock J H,Yogo M.Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2005
① 由于篇幅所限,本研究没有列出LIML的工具变量估计结果,感兴趣的读者可以向本研究作者索取。
(1)源于2018年中央一号文件《中共中央国务院关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》。
(2)数据来源:湖北省农业厅,2016年,湖北省主要农作物耕种收综合机械化水平达67.4%。
(3)数据来源:中华人民共和国自然资源部。
(4)数据来源:2017国家统计局。