中国人口老龄化的劳动供给效应——基于省级面板数据的分析
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摘要
基于中国1987—2017年的省级面板数据实证分析我国人口老龄化的劳动供给效应,进一步探讨劳动供给效应的阶段、地区、行业和性别方面的异质性特征。研究结果表明:人口老龄化程度每加深1%,潜在劳动供给和真实劳动供给下降约2%,经济活动人口劳动参与率下降1. 2%,就业人口口径的劳动参与率则未显现下降趋势。此外,人口老龄化显著提高了劳动熟练程度,但对劳动力的受教育水平和劳动强度的影响不显著。因而,当下要把握好人口政策的转向调速,积极而又审慎地推进老龄化的社会治理选择。
Based on China's provincial panel data from 1987 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the labor supply effect of China's population aging,and further explores heterogeneity in labor supply effect in view of the stage,region,industry and gender. Empirical results show that with the deepening of population aging by 1%,the potential labor supply and the real labor supply decrease by about 2%,and the labor participation rate of the economically active population decreases by 1. 2%; however,the labor participation rate of the employed population has not yet shown a downward trend; in addition,the aging of the population has significantly improved the level of labor proficiency,but its impact on the level of education and labor intensity of the labor force is not significant. Therefore,China must grasp the turn of the population policy and regulate the governance choices of the aging society actively and prudently.
Based on China's provincial panel data from 1987 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the labor supply effect of China's population aging,and further explores heterogeneity in labor supply effect in view of the stage,region,industry and gender. Empirical results show that with the deepening of population aging by 1%,the potential labor supply and the real labor supply decrease by about 2%,and the labor participation rate of the economically active population decreases by 1. 2%; however,the labor participation rate of the employed population has not yet shown a downward trend; in addition,the aging of the population has significantly improved the level of labor proficiency,but its impact on the level of education and labor intensity of the labor force is not significant. Therefore,China must grasp the turn of the population policy and regulate the governance choices of the aging society actively and prudently.
引文
[1]胡湛,彭希哲.应对中国人口老龄化的治理选择[J].中国社会科学,2018(12):134-155.
[2]汪伟,刘玉飞,王文鹏.长寿的宏观经济效应研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018(9):128-143.
[3]BOLIN K,LINDGREN B,LUNDBORG P.Your next of kin or your own career?caring and working among the 50+of Europe[J].Journal of Health Economics,2008,27(3):718-738.
[4]LAN LIU,XIAOYUAN DONG,XIAOYING ZHENG.Parental care and married women's labor supply in urban China[J].Feminist Economics,2010,16(3):169-192.
[5]ADRIAAN KALWIJ,ARIE KAPTEYN,KLAAS DE VOS.Early retirement and employment of the young[R].Rand Working Paper Series,2009:No.WR-679.
[6]BARBARA A BUTRICA,HOWARD M IAMS,KAREN E SMITH.The changing impact of social security on retirement income in the United States[J].Social Security Bulletin,2006,65(3):1-13.
[7]JONATHAN GRUBER,KEVIN MILLIGAN,DAVID A WISE.Social security programs and retirement around the world:the relationship to youth employment[R].NBER Working Paper,2009:No.14647.
[8]CHULHEE LEE.Long-term changes in the economic activity of older males in Korea[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2007,56(1):99-123.
[9]马忠东,吕智浩,叶孔嘉.劳动参与率与劳动力增长:1982~2050年[J].中国人口科学,2010(1):11-27.
[10]齐明珠.我国2010-2050年劳动力供给与需求预测[J].人口研究,2010(5):76-87.
[11]王立军,马文秀.人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁[J].中国人口科学,2012(6):23-33.
[12]郭瑜.人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(11):49-58.
[13]童玉芬.人口老龄化过程中我国劳动力供给变化特点及面临的挑战[J].人口研究,2014(2):52-60.
[14]钟水映,赵雨,任静儒.我国地区间“未富先老”现象研究[J].人口研究,2015(1):63-73.
[15]彭秀健,DIETRICH FAUSTEN.低生育率、人口老龄化与劳动力供给[J].中国劳动经济学,2006(4):43-63.
[16]程杰.养老保障的劳动供给效应[J].经济研究,2014(10):60-73.
[17]周祝平,刘海斌.人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响[J].人口研究,2016(3):58-70.
[18]齐红倩,闫海春.人口老龄化抑制中国经济增长了吗?[J].经济评论,2018(6):28-40.
[19]汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.
[20]陈秋霖,许多,周羿.人口老龄化背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应---基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2018(6):30-42.
[21]SHUAIZHANG FENG,YINGYAO HU,ROBERT MOFFITT.Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2017,45(2):304-324.
[22]JIE CAI,A STOYANOV.Population aging and comparative advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,102(4):1-21.
(1)参见人民网:积极应对人口老龄化战略研讨会,http://society.people.com.cn/GB/140459/187680/345844/。
(1)参见人民日报(海外版):生娃是家事也是国事鼓励政策不能画饼充饥,http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/2018-08-06/doc-ihhhczfc1552163.shtml。
(2)参见国家统计局:人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率数据,http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01。
(3)参见美国劳工部网站:Charting International Labor Comparisons(2012 Edition),https://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/2012/section2a.htm#。
(4)劳动参与率指就业和失业人员之和(经济活动人口)与劳动年龄人口之比。劳动年龄人口指15岁及以上或16岁及以上人口,具体因国家不同而略有差异。该劳动参与率定义与图2b中定义一致,两者具有可比性。
(1)为了最大程度消除国别预期寿命对退休年龄的影响,本研究将中国与OECD各国的最低退休年龄进行比较。参见OECD官网:OECD Database on Average Effective Retirement Age,http://www.oecd.org/els/emp/average-effective-age-of-retirement.htm。
(1)限于篇幅,以五年为单位的更为细致的分阶段回归结果略,备索。
(2)目前我国人口普查和抽样调查均按常住人口进行统计和汇总。换言之,本文用于衡量劳动供给规模的劳动年龄人口和就业人口均是常住人口口径,这体现了人口流动的结果。
(3)人口老龄化程度的地区差异表现为:东部>中部>东北>西部。
(1)更宽口径的真实劳动供给体现在经济活动人口及其劳动参与率两个方面。与就业人口相比,经济活动人口包含了失业人口,能以更宽的口径反映一定时期内全部劳动力资源的实际利用情况。
(2)2010年中国女性的劳动参与率约为68%,男性约为80%。参见美国劳工部网站:Charting International Labor Comparisons(2012 Edition),https://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/2012/section2a.htm#。
(1)出于结果的稳健性考虑,采用基准回归表3中的FE模型结果作为本文的基准结论。
[2]汪伟,刘玉飞,王文鹏.长寿的宏观经济效应研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018(9):128-143.
[3]BOLIN K,LINDGREN B,LUNDBORG P.Your next of kin or your own career?caring and working among the 50+of Europe[J].Journal of Health Economics,2008,27(3):718-738.
[4]LAN LIU,XIAOYUAN DONG,XIAOYING ZHENG.Parental care and married women's labor supply in urban China[J].Feminist Economics,2010,16(3):169-192.
[5]ADRIAAN KALWIJ,ARIE KAPTEYN,KLAAS DE VOS.Early retirement and employment of the young[R].Rand Working Paper Series,2009:No.WR-679.
[6]BARBARA A BUTRICA,HOWARD M IAMS,KAREN E SMITH.The changing impact of social security on retirement income in the United States[J].Social Security Bulletin,2006,65(3):1-13.
[7]JONATHAN GRUBER,KEVIN MILLIGAN,DAVID A WISE.Social security programs and retirement around the world:the relationship to youth employment[R].NBER Working Paper,2009:No.14647.
[8]CHULHEE LEE.Long-term changes in the economic activity of older males in Korea[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2007,56(1):99-123.
[9]马忠东,吕智浩,叶孔嘉.劳动参与率与劳动力增长:1982~2050年[J].中国人口科学,2010(1):11-27.
[10]齐明珠.我国2010-2050年劳动力供给与需求预测[J].人口研究,2010(5):76-87.
[11]王立军,马文秀.人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁[J].中国人口科学,2012(6):23-33.
[12]郭瑜.人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(11):49-58.
[13]童玉芬.人口老龄化过程中我国劳动力供给变化特点及面临的挑战[J].人口研究,2014(2):52-60.
[14]钟水映,赵雨,任静儒.我国地区间“未富先老”现象研究[J].人口研究,2015(1):63-73.
[15]彭秀健,DIETRICH FAUSTEN.低生育率、人口老龄化与劳动力供给[J].中国劳动经济学,2006(4):43-63.
[16]程杰.养老保障的劳动供给效应[J].经济研究,2014(10):60-73.
[17]周祝平,刘海斌.人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响[J].人口研究,2016(3):58-70.
[18]齐红倩,闫海春.人口老龄化抑制中国经济增长了吗?[J].经济评论,2018(6):28-40.
[19]汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.
[20]陈秋霖,许多,周羿.人口老龄化背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应---基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2018(6):30-42.
[21]SHUAIZHANG FENG,YINGYAO HU,ROBERT MOFFITT.Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2017,45(2):304-324.
[22]JIE CAI,A STOYANOV.Population aging and comparative advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,102(4):1-21.
(1)参见人民网:积极应对人口老龄化战略研讨会,http://society.people.com.cn/GB/140459/187680/345844/。
(1)参见人民日报(海外版):生娃是家事也是国事鼓励政策不能画饼充饥,http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/2018-08-06/doc-ihhhczfc1552163.shtml。
(2)参见国家统计局:人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率数据,http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01。
(3)参见美国劳工部网站:Charting International Labor Comparisons(2012 Edition),https://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/2012/section2a.htm#。
(4)劳动参与率指就业和失业人员之和(经济活动人口)与劳动年龄人口之比。劳动年龄人口指15岁及以上或16岁及以上人口,具体因国家不同而略有差异。该劳动参与率定义与图2b中定义一致,两者具有可比性。
(1)为了最大程度消除国别预期寿命对退休年龄的影响,本研究将中国与OECD各国的最低退休年龄进行比较。参见OECD官网:OECD Database on Average Effective Retirement Age,http://www.oecd.org/els/emp/average-effective-age-of-retirement.htm。
(1)限于篇幅,以五年为单位的更为细致的分阶段回归结果略,备索。
(2)目前我国人口普查和抽样调查均按常住人口进行统计和汇总。换言之,本文用于衡量劳动供给规模的劳动年龄人口和就业人口均是常住人口口径,这体现了人口流动的结果。
(3)人口老龄化程度的地区差异表现为:东部>中部>东北>西部。
(1)更宽口径的真实劳动供给体现在经济活动人口及其劳动参与率两个方面。与就业人口相比,经济活动人口包含了失业人口,能以更宽的口径反映一定时期内全部劳动力资源的实际利用情况。
(2)2010年中国女性的劳动参与率约为68%,男性约为80%。参见美国劳工部网站:Charting International Labor Comparisons(2012 Edition),https://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/2012/section2a.htm#。
(1)出于结果的稳健性考虑,采用基准回归表3中的FE模型结果作为本文的基准结论。