收入不平等与居民消费率的非线性关系——基于跨国面板数据的实证检验
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摘要
利用151个国家1960—2017年的跨国数据构建了动态非平衡面板数据模型,对收入不平等与居民消费率的非线性关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,收入不平等与居民消费率整体呈"倒U型"关系,但这一关系只在发展中国家成立,发达国家中这一关系并不显著;金融发展水平的提高有利于发达国家促进居民消费,而在发展中国家金融发展所带来的效应不显著。另外,消费文化、经济发展水平、民生性财政支出和国家的系统不确定性也在一定程度上影响了居民消费。
Using the cross-country data of 151 countries from 1960 to 2017, this paper constructs a dynamic unbalanced panel data model, and empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between income inequality and household consumption rate. The study finds that there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between income inequality and household consumption rate, but this relationship is only established in developing countries, which is not significant in developed countries; the improvement of the level of financial development is conducive to the promotion of household consumption in developed countries, while the effects of financial development in developing countries are not significant. In addition, consumption culture, economic development level, people's livelihood fiscal expenditure and national system uncertainty have affected residents' consumption to a certain extent.
Using the cross-country data of 151 countries from 1960 to 2017, this paper constructs a dynamic unbalanced panel data model, and empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between income inequality and household consumption rate. The study finds that there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between income inequality and household consumption rate, but this relationship is only established in developing countries, which is not significant in developed countries; the improvement of the level of financial development is conducive to the promotion of household consumption in developed countries, while the effects of financial development in developing countries are not significant. In addition, consumption culture, economic development level, people's livelihood fiscal expenditure and national system uncertainty have affected residents' consumption to a certain extent.
引文
[1]Alvaredo F ,Chancel L ,Piketty T ,et al.Global Inequality Dynamics:New Findings from Wid.World[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2018.
[2]Sarfati H .OECD.In it together :Why less inequality benefits all[J].International Social Security Review,2016,68(4).
[3]Kirshner J.Keynes,Capital Mobility and the Crisis of Embedded Liberalism[J].Review of International Political Economy,1999,6(3).
[4]Kuznets S.Uses of National Income in Peace and War[J].Inorganic Chemistry,1942,26(23).
[5]Duesenberry J S.Income,Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior[J].Review of Economics & Statistics,1949,33(3).
[6]Doorn J V.Aggregate consumption and the distribution of incomes[J].European Economic Review,1975,6(4).
[7]陈斌开.收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2012(1).
[8]Frank R H.The Demand for Unobservable and Other Nonpositional Goods[J].American Economic Review,1985,75(1).
[9]Corneo G,Jeanne O.Status,the Distribution of Wealth,and Growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2010,103(2).
[10]Christen M ,Morgan R M .Keeping Up With the Joneses:Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing[J].Quantitative Marketing and Economics,2005,3(2).
[11]Jappelli T,Pistaferri L.Fiscal Policy and MPC Heterogeneity[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2014,6(4).
[12]拉古拉迈·拉詹.断层线:全球经济潜在的危机[M].刘念,译.北京:中信出版社,2015.
[13]Loayza N,Schmidt-Hebbel K,Servén L.Saving in Developing Countries:An Overview[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,14(3).
[14]易行健,杨碧云.世界各国(地区)居民消费率决定因素的经验检验[J].世界经济,2015(1).
[15]梅冬州,陈金至,曹玉瑾.货币低估与收入不平等[J].世界经济,2018(5).
[16]王弟海,黄亮,李宏毅.健康投资能影响跨国人均产出差距吗?——来自跨国面板数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2016(8).
[17]叶德珠,连玉君,黄有光,等.消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差[J].经济研究,2012(2).
[18]Dalal D K ,Zickar M J .Some Common Myths About Centering Predictor Variables in Moderated Multiple Regression and Polynomial Regression[J].Organizational Research Methods,2012.
[19]娄峰,李雪松.中国城镇居民消费需求的动态半参数面板数据分析(英文)[J].Social Sciences in China,2009(4).
[20]易行健,刘胜,杨碧云.民生性财政支出对我国居民消费率的影响——基于1996—2009年省际面板数据的实证检验[J].上海财经大学学报,2013,15(2).
(1)三大需求是指支出法国内生产总值的三大构成项目,即最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口。
(2)数据来源:世界银行;贡献率是参考国家统计局的定义,指三大需求增量与支出法国内生产总值增量之比。
(3)数据来源:世界银行。
(4)数据来源:世界不平等数据库(WID)。
(5)根据表2方程(3)总样本系统GMM的估计结果求得,极点值=1.080/(2*0.014),约为39(%)。
(6)本文并未考虑引入交互项之后的多重共线性问题,因为Dalal和Zickar(2012)等认为有关交乘项导致的多重共线性问题并不重要,它只影响常数项的估计值,并不影响统计推断。[18]339-362
[2]Sarfati H .OECD.In it together :Why less inequality benefits all[J].International Social Security Review,2016,68(4).
[3]Kirshner J.Keynes,Capital Mobility and the Crisis of Embedded Liberalism[J].Review of International Political Economy,1999,6(3).
[4]Kuznets S.Uses of National Income in Peace and War[J].Inorganic Chemistry,1942,26(23).
[5]Duesenberry J S.Income,Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior[J].Review of Economics & Statistics,1949,33(3).
[6]Doorn J V.Aggregate consumption and the distribution of incomes[J].European Economic Review,1975,6(4).
[7]陈斌开.收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2012(1).
[8]Frank R H.The Demand for Unobservable and Other Nonpositional Goods[J].American Economic Review,1985,75(1).
[9]Corneo G,Jeanne O.Status,the Distribution of Wealth,and Growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2010,103(2).
[10]Christen M ,Morgan R M .Keeping Up With the Joneses:Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing[J].Quantitative Marketing and Economics,2005,3(2).
[11]Jappelli T,Pistaferri L.Fiscal Policy and MPC Heterogeneity[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2014,6(4).
[12]拉古拉迈·拉詹.断层线:全球经济潜在的危机[M].刘念,译.北京:中信出版社,2015.
[13]Loayza N,Schmidt-Hebbel K,Servén L.Saving in Developing Countries:An Overview[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,14(3).
[14]易行健,杨碧云.世界各国(地区)居民消费率决定因素的经验检验[J].世界经济,2015(1).
[15]梅冬州,陈金至,曹玉瑾.货币低估与收入不平等[J].世界经济,2018(5).
[16]王弟海,黄亮,李宏毅.健康投资能影响跨国人均产出差距吗?——来自跨国面板数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2016(8).
[17]叶德珠,连玉君,黄有光,等.消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差[J].经济研究,2012(2).
[18]Dalal D K ,Zickar M J .Some Common Myths About Centering Predictor Variables in Moderated Multiple Regression and Polynomial Regression[J].Organizational Research Methods,2012.
[19]娄峰,李雪松.中国城镇居民消费需求的动态半参数面板数据分析(英文)[J].Social Sciences in China,2009(4).
[20]易行健,刘胜,杨碧云.民生性财政支出对我国居民消费率的影响——基于1996—2009年省际面板数据的实证检验[J].上海财经大学学报,2013,15(2).
(1)三大需求是指支出法国内生产总值的三大构成项目,即最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口。
(2)数据来源:世界银行;贡献率是参考国家统计局的定义,指三大需求增量与支出法国内生产总值增量之比。
(3)数据来源:世界银行。
(4)数据来源:世界不平等数据库(WID)。
(5)根据表2方程(3)总样本系统GMM的估计结果求得,极点值=1.080/(2*0.014),约为39(%)。
(6)本文并未考虑引入交互项之后的多重共线性问题,因为Dalal和Zickar(2012)等认为有关交乘项导致的多重共线性问题并不重要,它只影响常数项的估计值,并不影响统计推断。[18]339-362