世界人口发展趋势和人口转变——理论与现实
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摘要
人口转变理论是对人口转变过程的精炼概括。重点阐述三次人口转变理论的主要内容和发展脉络,分析当前世界人口发展的阶段及趋势。结果表明,世界人口发展仍不平衡,人口总量在增长,但增速在下降;欧美生育水平较低,而非洲生育率始终居高不下;发达国家主要面临低生育率和人口老龄化问题,而发展中国家主要面临贫困和人口过快增长的问题。比较中美两国人口发展的特征,发现二者都已经步入老龄化社会,但美国作为移民国家,其老龄化问题相对更轻。中国应借鉴人口转变理论及发达国家应对人口老龄化政策的经验,采取妥善措施应对人口问题。
Demographic transition theories are a refined summary of the process of population transformation. This paper focuses on the main contents and development context of the three population transition theories, and analyses the current stage and trend of world population development. The results show that: the world population development is still unbalanced, while the amount of population is increasing,the growth rate is decreasing; the fertility level in Europe and the United States is relatively low, while Africa's fertility rate remains high; the developed countries mainly face the problems of low fertility and aging population, while the developing countries mainly face the problems of poverty and rapid population growth. Comparing China with the United States, it is found that, although both countries have become an aging society, the United States, as a country of immigration, aging problem is comparatively less serious. China should learn from the demographic transition theories and the experience of developed countries in dealing with aging population, and take appropriate measures to deal with population problems.
Demographic transition theories are a refined summary of the process of population transformation. This paper focuses on the main contents and development context of the three population transition theories, and analyses the current stage and trend of world population development. The results show that: the world population development is still unbalanced, while the amount of population is increasing,the growth rate is decreasing; the fertility level in Europe and the United States is relatively low, while Africa's fertility rate remains high; the developed countries mainly face the problems of low fertility and aging population, while the developing countries mainly face the problems of poverty and rapid population growth. Comparing China with the United States, it is found that, although both countries have become an aging society, the United States, as a country of immigration, aging problem is comparatively less serious. China should learn from the demographic transition theories and the experience of developed countries in dealing with aging population, and take appropriate measures to deal with population problems.
引文
[1]陈卫,黄小燕.人口转变理论述评[J].中国人口科学,1999(5):51-56
[2]LEIBENSTEIN H.Economic backwardness and economic growth:studies in the theory of economic development[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1957.
[3]SHARMA R,BHATTACHARYYA A.Socio-economic development and fertility decline:a review of some theoretical approaches[M].New York:United Nations:Department of International Economic and Social Affairs,1990.
[4]蒋耒文.“欧洲第二次人口转变”理论及其思考[J].人口研究,2002(3):45-49.
[5]COALE A J,HOOVER E M.Population growth and economic development in low-income:a case study of Indian's prospects[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1958.
[6]KINDLEBERGER C,HERRICK B.Economical development[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company,1977.
[7]VAN DE KAA D J.Europe's second demographic transition[J].Population Bulletin,1987(1):1-59.
[8]LESTHAEGHE R.The unfolding story of the second demographic transition[J].Population and Development Review,2010(2):211-251.
[9]LESTHAEGHE R.Second demographic transition[C]∥The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology.New York:Blackwell Publishing,2007.
[10]LEE R.The demographic transition:three centuries of fundamental change[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2003(4):167-190.
[11]KIRK D.Demographic transition theory[J].Population Studies,1996(3):361-387.
[12]VAN DE KAA D J.The second demographic transition revisited:theories and expectations.[J].NIDI/CBGS Publication,1994(30):81-126.
[13]CALDWELL J C.Toward a eestatement of demographic transition theory[J].Population and Development Review,1976(3/4):321-366.
[14]COLEMAN D.Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries:a third demographic transition[J].Population and Development Review,2006(3):401-446.
[15]石人炳.人口转变:一个可以无限拓展的概念?[J].人口研究,2012(2):11-18.
[16]李建民.人口转变论的古典问题和新古典问题[J].中国人口科学,2001(4):68-72.
[17]刘爽,卫银霞,任慧.从一次人口转变到二次人口转变---现代人口转变及其启示[J].人口研究,2012(1):15-24.
[18]吴帆.第二次人口转变背景下的中国家庭变迁及政策思考[J].广东社会科学,2012(2):23-30.
(1)如无特殊说明,数据来源均为http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/(中方案)。
(1)人口自然增长率(‰)=出生率(‰)-死亡率(‰)。本研究定义人口自然增长率>20‰的为高增长阶段,10‰<人口自然增长率≤20‰的为过渡阶段,0<人口自然增长率≤10‰的为低增长阶段,人口自然增长率<0的为负增长阶段。
[2]LEIBENSTEIN H.Economic backwardness and economic growth:studies in the theory of economic development[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1957.
[3]SHARMA R,BHATTACHARYYA A.Socio-economic development and fertility decline:a review of some theoretical approaches[M].New York:United Nations:Department of International Economic and Social Affairs,1990.
[4]蒋耒文.“欧洲第二次人口转变”理论及其思考[J].人口研究,2002(3):45-49.
[5]COALE A J,HOOVER E M.Population growth and economic development in low-income:a case study of Indian's prospects[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1958.
[6]KINDLEBERGER C,HERRICK B.Economical development[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company,1977.
[7]VAN DE KAA D J.Europe's second demographic transition[J].Population Bulletin,1987(1):1-59.
[8]LESTHAEGHE R.The unfolding story of the second demographic transition[J].Population and Development Review,2010(2):211-251.
[9]LESTHAEGHE R.Second demographic transition[C]∥The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology.New York:Blackwell Publishing,2007.
[10]LEE R.The demographic transition:three centuries of fundamental change[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2003(4):167-190.
[11]KIRK D.Demographic transition theory[J].Population Studies,1996(3):361-387.
[12]VAN DE KAA D J.The second demographic transition revisited:theories and expectations.[J].NIDI/CBGS Publication,1994(30):81-126.
[13]CALDWELL J C.Toward a eestatement of demographic transition theory[J].Population and Development Review,1976(3/4):321-366.
[14]COLEMAN D.Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries:a third demographic transition[J].Population and Development Review,2006(3):401-446.
[15]石人炳.人口转变:一个可以无限拓展的概念?[J].人口研究,2012(2):11-18.
[16]李建民.人口转变论的古典问题和新古典问题[J].中国人口科学,2001(4):68-72.
[17]刘爽,卫银霞,任慧.从一次人口转变到二次人口转变---现代人口转变及其启示[J].人口研究,2012(1):15-24.
[18]吴帆.第二次人口转变背景下的中国家庭变迁及政策思考[J].广东社会科学,2012(2):23-30.
(1)如无特殊说明,数据来源均为http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/(中方案)。
(1)人口自然增长率(‰)=出生率(‰)-死亡率(‰)。本研究定义人口自然增长率>20‰的为高增长阶段,10‰<人口自然增长率≤20‰的为过渡阶段,0<人口自然增长率≤10‰的为低增长阶段,人口自然增长率<0的为负增长阶段。