中国城镇家庭储蓄率之谜——基于年龄—时期—组群分解的再考察
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摘要
经典的生命周期假说认为,储蓄率—年龄曲线呈倒U型,但基于年龄—时期—组群(APC)分解法对中国城镇住户调查(UHS)数据的研究并不支持生命周期假说的预测,一些研究发现中年户主家庭储蓄率相对较低,另一些研究则发现家庭储蓄率随着户主年龄不断上升。本文对此进行了深入研究,发现APC分解中的共线性识别方法不一致是产生上述分歧的原因。基于对四种不同的共线性识别方法的比较,本文认为城镇中年户主家庭储蓄率较低的正U型曲线比较符合中国实际。本文还发现城镇家庭储蓄率—户主年龄曲线在1996年前后发生了转变,由倒U型转为正U型。关于中年户主家庭储蓄率较低的原因,本文通过对UHS1988—2009年、CFPS中国家庭追踪调查2010—2016年数据的分析发现,城镇家庭中正在上大学、上高中的学生人数能够解释中年户主家庭的储蓄率为什么偏低。本文推测20世纪90年代中期开始的家庭教育负担的上升,可能是城镇家庭储蓄率—户主年龄曲线发生转变的原因。本文的研究澄清了关于中国城镇家庭储蓄率—户主年龄曲线形态的分歧,并揭示了解释城镇家庭储蓄率—户主年龄正U型之谜的新方向。
The classical life cycle hypothesis predicts that the savings rate age curve is inverted U shaped,but the researches using APC decomposition and UHS data do not support the prediction of life cycle hypothesis.Some studies find that the savings rate of middle age households is relatively low,while others find that the savings rate of households increases with the age of household heads.This paper makes a thorough study of this problem and finds that the reason for the divergence is the inconsistency of the collinearity identification methods in APC decomposition.Based on the comparison of four different collinearity identification methods,this paper finds that the positive U shaped curve with lower savings rate of middle age households is more in line with China's reality.This paper also finds that the urban household savings rate age curve has changed from inverted U to positive U around 1996.With regard to the reasons for the low savings rate of middle age households,this paper analyses the data of UHS from 1988 to 2009 and CFPS from 2010 to 2016,and finds that the number of children in college and high school of households can explain why the savings rate of middle age households is the lowest.This paper speculates that the increase of education burden since the mid-1990 s may be the reason for the change of the urban household savings rate age curve.This paper clarifies the divergence of the urban household savings rate age curve in China,and reveals a new direction of explaining the puzzle of the positive U shape of urban household savings rate age curve.
The classical life cycle hypothesis predicts that the savings rate age curve is inverted U shaped,but the researches using APC decomposition and UHS data do not support the prediction of life cycle hypothesis.Some studies find that the savings rate of middle age households is relatively low,while others find that the savings rate of households increases with the age of household heads.This paper makes a thorough study of this problem and finds that the reason for the divergence is the inconsistency of the collinearity identification methods in APC decomposition.Based on the comparison of four different collinearity identification methods,this paper finds that the positive U shaped curve with lower savings rate of middle age households is more in line with China's reality.This paper also finds that the urban household savings rate age curve has changed from inverted U to positive U around 1996.With regard to the reasons for the low savings rate of middle age households,this paper analyses the data of UHS from 1988 to 2009 and CFPS from 2010 to 2016,and finds that the number of children in college and high school of households can explain why the savings rate of middle age households is the lowest.This paper speculates that the increase of education burden since the mid-1990 s may be the reason for the change of the urban household savings rate age curve.This paper clarifies the divergence of the urban household savings rate age curve in China,and reveals a new direction of explaining the puzzle of the positive U shape of urban household savings rate age curve.
引文
[1]艾春荣,汪伟.习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性---基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(11):98-114.
[2]程令国,张晔.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?---对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,2011,(8):119-132.
[3]耿德伟.中国城镇居民个人收入差距的演进---一个基于组群视角的分析[J].管理世界,2014,(3):66-74.
[4]李宏彬,施新政,吴斌珍.中国居民退休前后的消费行为研究[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(1):117-134.
[5]李蕾,吴斌珍.家庭结构与储蓄率U型之谜[J].经济研究,2014,(S1):44-54.
[6]李雅娴,张川川.认知能力与消费:理解老年人口高储蓄率的一个新视角[J].经济学动态,2018,(2):65-75.
[7]茅锐,徐建炜.人口转型、消费结构差异和产业发展[J].人口研究,2014,(3):89-103.
[8]汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素---基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].财经研究,2008,(2):53-64.
[9]魏下海,董志强,张建武.人口年龄分布与中国居民劳动收入变动研究[J].中国人口科学,2012,(3):44-54.
[10]杨汝岱,陈斌开.高等教育改革,预防性储蓄与居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2009,(8):113-124.
[11]钟宁桦,朱亚群,陈斌开.住房体制改革与中国城镇居民储蓄[J].学术月刊,2018,(6):43-56.
[12]周绍杰,张俊森,李宏彬.中国城市居民的家庭收入、消费和储蓄行为:一个基于组群的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(4):1197-1220.
[13]Aguiar,M.,and E.Hurst.Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure[J].Journal of Political Economy,2013,121(3):437-492.
[14]Attanasio,O.P.Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S.Households[J].Journal of Human Resources,1998,33(3):575-609.
[15]Chamon,M.,and E.S.Prasad.Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2010,2(1):93-130.
[16]Chamon,M.,K.Liu.,and E.Prasad.Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,105(5):164-177.
[17]Deaton,A.Decompositions by Age,Cohort,and Year[A].Deaton,A.The Analysis of Household Surveys:AMicroeconometric Approach to Development Policy[C].Washington D.C.:World Bank,1997.
[18]Deaton,A.,and C.Paxson.Saving,Growth,and Aging in Taiwan[A].Wise,D.A.Studies in The Economics of Aging[C].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1994.
[19]Ding,H.,and H.He.A Tale of Transition:An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China,1986-2009[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2018,29(7):106-137.
[20]Fernández-Villaverde,J.,and D.Krueger.Consumption over the Life Cycle:Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data[J].the Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(3):552-565.
[21]Fu,W.Constrained Estimators and Consistency of a Regression Model on a Lexis Diagram[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2016,111(513):180-199.
[22]Fu,W.A Practical Guide to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis:The Identification Problem and Beyond[M].Boca Raton:CRC Press,2018.
[23]Gibson,J.,and G.Scobie.A Cohort Analysis of Household Income,Consumption and Saving[J].New Zealand Economic Papers,2001,35(2):196-216.
[24]Gokhale,J.,J.Kotlikoff.,and J.Sabelhaus.Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S.Saving:A Cohort Analysis[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1996,27(1):315-407.
[25]He,H.,F.Huang.,Z.Liu.,and D.M.Zhu.Breaking the“Iron Rice Bowl”Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-owned Enterprises Reform[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2018,94(4):94-113.
[26]Heathcote,J.,F.Perri.,and G.L.Violante.Unequal We Stand:An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in The United States,1967-2006[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2010,13(1):15-51.
[27]Kupper,L.L.,J.M.Janis.,A.Karmous.,and B.G.Greenberg.Statistical Age-period-cohort Analysis:AReview and Critique[J].Journal of Chronic Diseases,1985,38(10):811-830.
[28]Modigliani,F.,and R.Brumberg.Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function:An Interpretation of CrossSection Data[A].Kenneth K.Post Keynesian Economics[C].New Jersey:Rutgers University Press,1954.
[29]Rosenzweig,M.,and J.S.Zhang.Co-residence,Life-cycle Savings and Inter-generational Support in Urban China[R].NBER Working Paper,2014.
[30]Song,M.,and D.T.Yang.Life Cycle Earnings and The Household Saving Puzzle in a Fast-Growing Economy[R].Chinese University of Hong Kong Working Paper,2010.
[31]Yang,Y.Aging,Cohorts,and Methods[A].Binstock,R.H.,and L.K.George.Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences[C].Amsterdam:Elsevier,2011.
[32]Yang,Y.,S.Schulhoferwohl.,W.Fu.,and C.Kenneth.The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis:What It Is and How to Use It[J].American Journal of Sociology,2008,113(6):1697-1736.
(1)具体的样本分布可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)其他控制变量只有家庭总人数,故实际上去掉了周绍杰等(2009)中的一个控制变量,即家庭有收入者数目,但这对结论几乎没有影响。
(2)去掉了Chamon and Prasad(2010)的一些控制变量,即0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20及以上的人口比例。后文将再次探讨家庭结构对家庭储蓄率的影响。
(1)这里控制与户主年龄差距,是为了避免多代同堂的大家庭所带来的困扰,例如,中年户主有一位年龄较小的长辈,在这种情况下,中年户主有帮扶的责任,而非相反。
(1)这里的大学包括硕士研究生和博士研究生。
(1)主要数据来自《中国教育经费统计资料》《中国教育经费统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》,具体计算过程可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
[2]程令国,张晔.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?---对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,2011,(8):119-132.
[3]耿德伟.中国城镇居民个人收入差距的演进---一个基于组群视角的分析[J].管理世界,2014,(3):66-74.
[4]李宏彬,施新政,吴斌珍.中国居民退休前后的消费行为研究[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(1):117-134.
[5]李蕾,吴斌珍.家庭结构与储蓄率U型之谜[J].经济研究,2014,(S1):44-54.
[6]李雅娴,张川川.认知能力与消费:理解老年人口高储蓄率的一个新视角[J].经济学动态,2018,(2):65-75.
[7]茅锐,徐建炜.人口转型、消费结构差异和产业发展[J].人口研究,2014,(3):89-103.
[8]汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素---基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].财经研究,2008,(2):53-64.
[9]魏下海,董志强,张建武.人口年龄分布与中国居民劳动收入变动研究[J].中国人口科学,2012,(3):44-54.
[10]杨汝岱,陈斌开.高等教育改革,预防性储蓄与居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2009,(8):113-124.
[11]钟宁桦,朱亚群,陈斌开.住房体制改革与中国城镇居民储蓄[J].学术月刊,2018,(6):43-56.
[12]周绍杰,张俊森,李宏彬.中国城市居民的家庭收入、消费和储蓄行为:一个基于组群的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(4):1197-1220.
[13]Aguiar,M.,and E.Hurst.Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure[J].Journal of Political Economy,2013,121(3):437-492.
[14]Attanasio,O.P.Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S.Households[J].Journal of Human Resources,1998,33(3):575-609.
[15]Chamon,M.,and E.S.Prasad.Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2010,2(1):93-130.
[16]Chamon,M.,K.Liu.,and E.Prasad.Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,105(5):164-177.
[17]Deaton,A.Decompositions by Age,Cohort,and Year[A].Deaton,A.The Analysis of Household Surveys:AMicroeconometric Approach to Development Policy[C].Washington D.C.:World Bank,1997.
[18]Deaton,A.,and C.Paxson.Saving,Growth,and Aging in Taiwan[A].Wise,D.A.Studies in The Economics of Aging[C].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1994.
[19]Ding,H.,and H.He.A Tale of Transition:An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China,1986-2009[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2018,29(7):106-137.
[20]Fernández-Villaverde,J.,and D.Krueger.Consumption over the Life Cycle:Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data[J].the Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(3):552-565.
[21]Fu,W.Constrained Estimators and Consistency of a Regression Model on a Lexis Diagram[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2016,111(513):180-199.
[22]Fu,W.A Practical Guide to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis:The Identification Problem and Beyond[M].Boca Raton:CRC Press,2018.
[23]Gibson,J.,and G.Scobie.A Cohort Analysis of Household Income,Consumption and Saving[J].New Zealand Economic Papers,2001,35(2):196-216.
[24]Gokhale,J.,J.Kotlikoff.,and J.Sabelhaus.Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S.Saving:A Cohort Analysis[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1996,27(1):315-407.
[25]He,H.,F.Huang.,Z.Liu.,and D.M.Zhu.Breaking the“Iron Rice Bowl”Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-owned Enterprises Reform[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2018,94(4):94-113.
[26]Heathcote,J.,F.Perri.,and G.L.Violante.Unequal We Stand:An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in The United States,1967-2006[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2010,13(1):15-51.
[27]Kupper,L.L.,J.M.Janis.,A.Karmous.,and B.G.Greenberg.Statistical Age-period-cohort Analysis:AReview and Critique[J].Journal of Chronic Diseases,1985,38(10):811-830.
[28]Modigliani,F.,and R.Brumberg.Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function:An Interpretation of CrossSection Data[A].Kenneth K.Post Keynesian Economics[C].New Jersey:Rutgers University Press,1954.
[29]Rosenzweig,M.,and J.S.Zhang.Co-residence,Life-cycle Savings and Inter-generational Support in Urban China[R].NBER Working Paper,2014.
[30]Song,M.,and D.T.Yang.Life Cycle Earnings and The Household Saving Puzzle in a Fast-Growing Economy[R].Chinese University of Hong Kong Working Paper,2010.
[31]Yang,Y.Aging,Cohorts,and Methods[A].Binstock,R.H.,and L.K.George.Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences[C].Amsterdam:Elsevier,2011.
[32]Yang,Y.,S.Schulhoferwohl.,W.Fu.,and C.Kenneth.The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis:What It Is and How to Use It[J].American Journal of Sociology,2008,113(6):1697-1736.
(1)具体的样本分布可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)其他控制变量只有家庭总人数,故实际上去掉了周绍杰等(2009)中的一个控制变量,即家庭有收入者数目,但这对结论几乎没有影响。
(2)去掉了Chamon and Prasad(2010)的一些控制变量,即0-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20及以上的人口比例。后文将再次探讨家庭结构对家庭储蓄率的影响。
(1)这里控制与户主年龄差距,是为了避免多代同堂的大家庭所带来的困扰,例如,中年户主有一位年龄较小的长辈,在这种情况下,中年户主有帮扶的责任,而非相反。
(1)这里的大学包括硕士研究生和博士研究生。
(1)主要数据来自《中国教育经费统计资料》《中国教育经费统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》,具体计算过程可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。