对外直接投资对东道国经济增长影响路径分析——基于“一带一路”国家投资的面板数据
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摘要
"一带一路"的发展导向特征使其不同于现有的区域合作机制,对外直接投资与东道国经济增长关系具有较大的不确定性。本文从"两缺口模型"和经济增长核算方程入手,在测算分析"一带一路"沿线国家存在资金缺口的基础上,构建了对外直接投资与东道国经济增长的聚类固定效应模型,研究发现:(1)中国对外直接投资会促进"一带一路"沿线国家的经济增长,但是促进作用会随沿线国家人均GDP水平的提高而减弱;(2)在经济发展相对滞后的阶段,东道国的技术水平对经济增长的影响并不显著,随着东道国人均GDP水平的提高,东道国的技术水平替代中国对外直接投资成为经济增长的动力;(3)资本和劳动投入是"一带一路"国家经济增长的重要源泉。
The development orientation of"the Belt and Road Initiatives"makes it different from the existing regional cooperation mechanism,and the relationship between OFDI and the economic growth of host countries is uncertain.This article commence with"two gaps model"and the growth accounting equation,on the basis of the funding gap,clustering fixed effects model is constructed of the OFDI and economic growth of host country.The study finds that:(1)China's OFDI promotes the country's economic growth of"the Belt and Road Initiatives",but the promoting effect would be weakened with the increase of the level of GDP per capita;(2)in the relatively backward stage of economic development,the host country's technology level has no significant impact on economic growth.With the improvement of the per capita GDP level of the host country,the host country's technology level replaces China's OFDI as the driving force of economic growth;(3)capital and labor input are important sources of economic growth in"the Belt and Road Initiatives"countries.
The development orientation of"the Belt and Road Initiatives"makes it different from the existing regional cooperation mechanism,and the relationship between OFDI and the economic growth of host countries is uncertain.This article commence with"two gaps model"and the growth accounting equation,on the basis of the funding gap,clustering fixed effects model is constructed of the OFDI and economic growth of host country.The study finds that:(1)China's OFDI promotes the country's economic growth of"the Belt and Road Initiatives",but the promoting effect would be weakened with the increase of the level of GDP per capita;(2)in the relatively backward stage of economic development,the host country's technology level has no significant impact on economic growth.With the improvement of the per capita GDP level of the host country,the host country's technology level replaces China's OFDI as the driving force of economic growth;(3)capital and labor input are important sources of economic growth in"the Belt and Road Initiatives"countries.
引文
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[2]张林.中国双向FDI、金融发展与产业结构优化[J].世界经济研究,2016,(10):111～124.
[3]Silajdzic S S S,Mehic E M E.Absorptive Capabilities,FDI,and Economic Growth in Transition Economies[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2016,(4):904～922.
[4]Leandro Do Rosario Viana Duarte Y K A L.The Relationship Between FDI,Economic Growth and Financial Development in Cabo Verde[J].International Journal of Economics and Finance,2017,(5):132～142.
[5]高铁梅,康书隆.外商直接投资对中国经济影响的动态分析[J].世界经济,2006,(4):22～30.
[6]杨梦泓,刘振兴.挤出还是溢出:FDI出口溢出效应研究[J].浙江社会科学,2011,(7):13～19.
[7]李连波.外商直接投资的竞争及溢出效应——来自2004～2013年我国247个地级市的证据[J].学习与探索,2017,(11):161～168.
[8]陈涛涛,陈晓.外资依赖型产业发展战略:激励和限制因素——巴西汽车产业发展研究[J].国际经济合作,2014,(4):4～10.
[9]Elkomy S,Ingham H,Read R.Economic and Political Determinants of the Effects of FDI on Growth in Transition and Developing Countries[J].Thunderbird International Business Review,2016,58(4):347～362.
[10]Agbloyor E K,Gyeke-Dako A,Kuipo R,et al.Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in SSA:The Role of Institutions[J].Thunderbird International Business Review,2016,58(5):479～497.
[11]李向阳.亚洲区域经济一体化的“缺位”与“一带一路”的发展导向[J].中国社会科学,2018,(8):33～43.