新中国70年人口变迁与老龄化挑战:文献与政策研究综述
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摘要
本文回顾新中国70年以来人口的变迁历程,详细梳理相关的理论以及政策研究文献,从多个角度来探讨人口增长率变化的原因,总结分析当前中国面临的老龄化挑战,以期得到适合中国国情的政策应对方案。文献分析表明:当前的人口老龄化问题主要是由于生育率过低导致,而长期执行的计划生育政策,特别是一胎化政策,不能够完全解释60年代以来生育率的持续下降;工业化的发展,社会福利体系的完善,养子成本的迅速上升,都是导致生育意愿下降的重要原因。在此基础上,文章主要结论是:在"人口转型"的大背景下,低生育率的形势往往难以逆转,通过放开生育限制或财政补贴鼓励生育来提高生育率的作用会相当有限,大批量放开移民的政策也不符合中国的国情;根据当前的实际情况
This paper reviews the facts about the population dynamics in China in the past seven decades,summarizes the relevant literature and policy analysis,discusses the driving forces behind thesedemographic changes,and provides policy recommendations in dealing with the aging challenges.Based on the literature review,the paper finds that the current trend towards an aging society is a consequence of low fertility rate.The long lasting demographic control policies in China cannot fully explain its fertility decline since the 1960 s.Industrialization,improving social welfare,and the escalating child raising costs are all important contributing factors.In light of these views,this paper concludes that,due to"demographic transition",with the social and economic development,the low fertility rate is really hard to be recovered.Policies such as releasing the birth limit,or subsidizing child|raising will not be effective.Attracting international immigrants is not an option,either.In the current situation,one feasible option is to extend the retirement age.But even this one will not solve the problem completely.In the long|run,the best strategy China should consider is to improve human capital accumulation,and increase the allocative efficiency of its labor.Only after more profound reforms in the labor market,can China effectively cope with the aging challenges,and transform its"demographic dividends"into "talent dividends".The paper provides an important reference to appreciate China's current demographic situation,and to design effective policies that should suit in the context of China.
This paper reviews the facts about the population dynamics in China in the past seven decades,summarizes the relevant literature and policy analysis,discusses the driving forces behind thesedemographic changes,and provides policy recommendations in dealing with the aging challenges.Based on the literature review,the paper finds that the current trend towards an aging society is a consequence of low fertility rate.The long lasting demographic control policies in China cannot fully explain its fertility decline since the 1960 s.Industrialization,improving social welfare,and the escalating child raising costs are all important contributing factors.In light of these views,this paper concludes that,due to"demographic transition",with the social and economic development,the low fertility rate is really hard to be recovered.Policies such as releasing the birth limit,or subsidizing child|raising will not be effective.Attracting international immigrants is not an option,either.In the current situation,one feasible option is to extend the retirement age.But even this one will not solve the problem completely.In the long|run,the best strategy China should consider is to improve human capital accumulation,and increase the allocative efficiency of its labor.Only after more profound reforms in the labor market,can China effectively cope with the aging challenges,and transform its"demographic dividends"into "talent dividends".The paper provides an important reference to appreciate China's current demographic situation,and to design effective policies that should suit in the context of China.
引文
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[3]贾男、马俊龙,2015:《非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应研究》,《管理世界》第9期。[Jia Man and Ma Junlong,2015,The Locking Effect of Non-Portable Medicare on Rural Labor Flo,Management World,9.]
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[8]於嘉、谢宇,2014:《生育对我国女性工资率的影响》,《人口研究》第1期。[Yu Jia and Xie Yu,2014,The Impact of Fertility on Female Wage Rate in China,Population Research,1.]
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[10]于静静、王英杰,2017:《住房支付能力影响农业人口流动的实证研究》,《财经理论与实践》第3期。[Yu Jingjing and Wang Yingjie,2017,Empirical Study on the Impact of Housing Affordability on Agricultural Population Flow,The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,3.]
[11]张自然,2015:《中国最优与最大城市规模探讨——基于264个城市的规模成本-收益法分析》,《金融评论》第5期。[Zhang Ziran,2015,Discussion on China's Best and Largest Urban Size:Based on the Cost-Benefit Method of Scale Analysis of 264Cities,Chinese Review of Financial Studies,5.]
[12]周黎安、王辉、唐遥,2019:《要素配置改革的“破”与“立”》,《财经》第6期。[Zhou Li'an,Wang Hui and Tang Yao,2019,The"Breakdown"and"Establishment"of the Production Factor Allocation Reform,Caijing,3.]
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[20]Brandt L.and T.Rawski,2008,China's Great Economic Transformation,Cambridge University Press.
[21]Cai F.,2010,Demographic Transition,Demographic Dividend,and Lewis Turning Point in China,China Economic Journal,3(2):107-119.
[22]Chen F.and G.Liu,2009,Population Aging in China,International Handbook of Population Aging,Springer,Dordrecht,157-172.
[23]Cutler D.M.,J.M.Poterba,L.M.Sheiner,L.H.Summers and G.A.Akerlof,1990,An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1-73.
[24]Doepke M.,2005,Child mortality and fertility decline:Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?,Journal of population Economics,18(2):337-366.
[25]Ding Q.J.and T.Hesketh,2006,Family Size,Fertility Preferences,and Sex Ratio in China in the Era of the One Child Family Policy:Results from National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey.
[26]Gabaix X.,1999,Zipf's Law for Cities:an Explanation,The Quarterly journal of economics,114(3):739-767.
[27]Gurley J.G.and E.S.Shaw,1995,Financial Aspects of Economic Development,The American Economic Review,45(4):515-538.
[28]Heckman J.J.,2005,China's human Capital Investment,China Economic Review,16(1):50-70.
[29]Hesketh T.,L.Lu,and Z.W.Wang,2005,The Effect of China’s One-Child Family Policy after 25Years,New England Journal of Medicine,353(11):1171-76.
[30]Henderson J.V.,D.Su,Q.Zhang and S.Zheng,2018,Local Factor Market Distortions in China,Working Paper,42.
[31]Hsieh C.-T.,and E.Moretti,2018,Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics.11(2),1-39.
[32]Herrmann M.,2012,Population Aging and Economic Development:Anxieties and policy responses,Journal of Population Ageing,5(1):23-46.
[33]Huang W.,X.Lei,and A.Sun,2016,When Fewer Means More:Impact of One-child Policy on Education of Girls,Working Paper.
[34]Li H.,P.Loyalka,S.Rozelle,and B.Wu,2017,Human Capital and China’s Future Growth,Journal of Economic Perspectives,31(1),25-48.
[35]Li H.,J.Zhang,and J.Zhang,2007,Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth:Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries,Journal of Development Economics,84(1),138-154.
[36]Li H,J.Zhang,and Y.Zhu,2005,The Effect of the One-child Policy on Fertility in China:Identification Based on the Differences-in-differences,Department of Economics,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Discussion Papers,19.
[37]Liang J.,2018,The Demographics of Innovation:Why Demographics is a Key to the Innovation Race,John Wiley&Sons.
[38]Liang J.,H.Wang,and E.P.Lazear,2018,Demographics and Entrepreneurship,Journal of Political Economy,126(S1),S140-S196.
[39]Liu H.,2014,The Quality-quantity trade-off:Evidence from the Relaxation of China’s One-child Policy,Journal of Population Economics,27(2):565-602.
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(2)本段数据均来自世界银行,其中人均GDP以2010年不变价美元计算。
(1)人口自然增长率指在一定时期内(通常为一年)人口自然增加数(出生人数减死亡人数)与该时期内平均人数(或期中人数)之比,用千分率表示。计算公式为:人口自然增长率=(年出生人口-年死亡人口)/年平均人口*1000‰=人口出生率-人口死亡率。
(1)《毛泽东选集》第四卷,人民出版社,1991年6月版,第1510页。
(1)1984年10月22日,邓小平在中央顾问委员会第三次会议上的讲话。
(2)《邓小平文选》(1975年-1982年),人民出版社,1983年7月版,第149~150页。
(3)《邓小平思想年谱(1975-1997)》,中央文献出版社,1998年11月版,第126页。
(4)《邓小平文选》(1975-1982年),人民出版社,1983年7月版,第360页。
(1)根据世界银行人口数据计算。https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
(1)1934年,法国人口学家阿道夫·兰德里(Adolphe Landry)也提出了相似的观点,他发现出生率下降与地区经济持续增长同时出现的现象较为普遍。美国人口学家佛兰克·诺特斯坦(Frank Notestein)在20世纪40和50年代进一步发展了这一理论,并用人口转型的角度对其他国家的人口趋势进行预测。
(1)数据来自世界卫生组织(WTO),这里以瑞典为例是因为瑞典是唯一一个记录了长期婴儿死亡率的国家。
(2)根据2015年美国农业部营养政策与促进中心测算,对于一个美国中产家庭抚养一个孩子到17岁平均需要23.36万美元,而在英国抚养一个孩子到21岁平均需要22.92万英镑,分别达到了当年家庭收入中位数的4.5倍和6倍。
(3)“世代交替水平”之所以高于2,是因为儿童在成长过程中可能出现夭折的情况。综合各国儿童死亡率的情况,国际上一般把TFR=2.1作为维持代际人口数量不变的生育率。
(1)“World Population Prospects:The 2017Revision”https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html
(2)《社会保障绿皮书(2019)》由“社会保障绿皮书”编写组与社会科学文献出版社共同发布。
(1)本段数据均来自世界银行,人均GDP以2010年不变价美元计算。
(2)假设劳动参与率不变,一个人进入劳动力市场的平均年龄为20岁,平均退休年龄为60岁。
(1)假设增长模型的生产函数为Y=AKαL1-α,其中Y表示产出,A表示技术,K表示资本,L表示劳动力,α反映了资本和劳动力的相对回报份额。在文献中,α=1/3是一个较为常见的取值,而对中国资本回报率的实证估计结果也大致在这一数值附近,如白重恩和张琼(2014)等。
(2)这意味着,假设索罗模型中的资本存量(K)以及全要素生产率(A)保持不变。
(1)根据卫计委发布的《中国卫生和计划生育事业发展统计公报2015》推算。
(1)生育率数据来自世界银行数据库。https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
(1)根据1982年全国人口普查数据和2015年1%人口抽样调查数据计算。
[2]段亚伟,2015:《社保统筹层次过低对农村劳动力流动的影响——基于扩展的托达罗模型的解释》,《财贸研究》第3期。[Duan Yawei,2015,The Impact of Low Level of Social Security Co-ordination on Rural Labor MobilityExplanation Based on the Extended Todaro Model,Finance and Trade Research,3.]
[3]贾男、马俊龙,2015:《非携带式医保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应研究》,《管理世界》第9期。[Jia Man and Ma Junlong,2015,The Locking Effect of Non-Portable Medicare on Rural Labor Flo,Management World,9.]
[4]李富有、郭小叶、王博峰,2013:《户籍制度对农村劳动力流动趋势的影响分析——基于改进的托达罗模型》,《陕西师范大学学报哲学社会科学版》第6期。[Li Fuyou,Guo Xiaoye and Wang Bofeng,2013,Analysis of the Influence of Household Registration System on the Trend of Rural Labor Mobility Based on the Improved Todaro Model,Journal of Shaanxi Normal University Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,6.]
[5]李勇刚、周经,2016:《土地财政、住房价格与农村剩余劳动力转移》,《经济与管理研究》第8章。[Li Yonggang and Zhou Jing,2016,Land Finance,Housing Price and Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force,Research on Economics and Management,8.]
[6]刘世锦,2018:《中国经济增长十年展望2018-2027:中速平台与高质量发展》,中信出版社。[Liu Shijin,2018,Ten-year Prospects for China's Economic Growth 2018-2027:Medium-speed Platform and High-quality Development,CITIC Press.]
[7]王小鲁,2010:《中国城市化路径与城市规模的经济学分析》,《经济研究》第10期。[Wang Xiaolu,2010,Economic Analysis of Urbanization Path and Urban Scale in China,Economic Research Journal,10.]
[8]於嘉、谢宇,2014:《生育对我国女性工资率的影响》,《人口研究》第1期。[Yu Jia and Xie Yu,2014,The Impact of Fertility on Female Wage Rate in China,Population Research,1.]
[9]杨发祥,2004:《当代中国计划生育史研究》,浙江大学博士学位论文。[Yang Faxiang,2004,Research on the History of Family Planning in Contemporary China,Ph.D.Dissertation of Zhejiang University.]
[10]于静静、王英杰,2017:《住房支付能力影响农业人口流动的实证研究》,《财经理论与实践》第3期。[Yu Jingjing and Wang Yingjie,2017,Empirical Study on the Impact of Housing Affordability on Agricultural Population Flow,The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,3.]
[11]张自然,2015:《中国最优与最大城市规模探讨——基于264个城市的规模成本-收益法分析》,《金融评论》第5期。[Zhang Ziran,2015,Discussion on China's Best and Largest Urban Size:Based on the Cost-Benefit Method of Scale Analysis of 264Cities,Chinese Review of Financial Studies,5.]
[12]周黎安、王辉、唐遥,2019:《要素配置改革的“破”与“立”》,《财经》第6期。[Zhou Li'an,Wang Hui and Tang Yao,2019,The"Breakdown"and"Establishment"of the Production Factor Allocation Reform,Caijing,3.]
[13]Ahn,N.,1994,Effects of the One-child Family Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei,Shanxi and Shanghai,Journal of Population Economics,7(1):63-78.
[14]Attane I.,2002,China's Family Planning Policy:an Overview of Its Past and Future,Studies in family planning,33(1):103-113.
[15]Au,C.C.,and J.V.Henderson,2006,Are Chinese Cities Too Small?The Review of Economic Studies,73(3),549-576.
[16]Maddison A.,1998,Chinese Economic Performance in the Long-Run,OECD Development Centre,Paris.
[17]Banister J.and K.Hill,2004,Mortality in China 1964-2000,Population studies,58(1):55-75.
[18]Becker G.,1991,A Treatise on the Family,Harvard University Press.
[19]Bloom D.E.,D.Canning and G.Fink,2010,Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth,Oxford Review of Economic Policy,26(4):583-612.
[20]Brandt L.and T.Rawski,2008,China's Great Economic Transformation,Cambridge University Press.
[21]Cai F.,2010,Demographic Transition,Demographic Dividend,and Lewis Turning Point in China,China Economic Journal,3(2):107-119.
[22]Chen F.and G.Liu,2009,Population Aging in China,International Handbook of Population Aging,Springer,Dordrecht,157-172.
[23]Cutler D.M.,J.M.Poterba,L.M.Sheiner,L.H.Summers and G.A.Akerlof,1990,An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1-73.
[24]Doepke M.,2005,Child mortality and fertility decline:Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?,Journal of population Economics,18(2):337-366.
[25]Ding Q.J.and T.Hesketh,2006,Family Size,Fertility Preferences,and Sex Ratio in China in the Era of the One Child Family Policy:Results from National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey.
[26]Gabaix X.,1999,Zipf's Law for Cities:an Explanation,The Quarterly journal of economics,114(3):739-767.
[27]Gurley J.G.and E.S.Shaw,1995,Financial Aspects of Economic Development,The American Economic Review,45(4):515-538.
[28]Heckman J.J.,2005,China's human Capital Investment,China Economic Review,16(1):50-70.
[29]Hesketh T.,L.Lu,and Z.W.Wang,2005,The Effect of China’s One-Child Family Policy after 25Years,New England Journal of Medicine,353(11):1171-76.
[30]Henderson J.V.,D.Su,Q.Zhang and S.Zheng,2018,Local Factor Market Distortions in China,Working Paper,42.
[31]Hsieh C.-T.,and E.Moretti,2018,Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics.11(2),1-39.
[32]Herrmann M.,2012,Population Aging and Economic Development:Anxieties and policy responses,Journal of Population Ageing,5(1):23-46.
[33]Huang W.,X.Lei,and A.Sun,2016,When Fewer Means More:Impact of One-child Policy on Education of Girls,Working Paper.
[34]Li H.,P.Loyalka,S.Rozelle,and B.Wu,2017,Human Capital and China’s Future Growth,Journal of Economic Perspectives,31(1),25-48.
[35]Li H.,J.Zhang,and J.Zhang,2007,Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth:Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries,Journal of Development Economics,84(1),138-154.
[36]Li H,J.Zhang,and Y.Zhu,2005,The Effect of the One-child Policy on Fertility in China:Identification Based on the Differences-in-differences,Department of Economics,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Discussion Papers,19.
[37]Liang J.,2018,The Demographics of Innovation:Why Demographics is a Key to the Innovation Race,John Wiley&Sons.
[38]Liang J.,H.Wang,and E.P.Lazear,2018,Demographics and Entrepreneurship,Journal of Political Economy,126(S1),S140-S196.
[39]Liu H.,2014,The Quality-quantity trade-off:Evidence from the Relaxation of China’s One-child Policy,Journal of Population Economics,27(2):565-602.
[40]Lutz W.,W.Sanderson,and S.Scherbov,2008,The Coming Acceleration of Global Population Ageing,Nature,451(7179):716.
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(2)本段数据均来自世界银行,其中人均GDP以2010年不变价美元计算。
(1)人口自然增长率指在一定时期内(通常为一年)人口自然增加数(出生人数减死亡人数)与该时期内平均人数(或期中人数)之比,用千分率表示。计算公式为:人口自然增长率=(年出生人口-年死亡人口)/年平均人口*1000‰=人口出生率-人口死亡率。
(1)《毛泽东选集》第四卷,人民出版社,1991年6月版,第1510页。
(1)1984年10月22日,邓小平在中央顾问委员会第三次会议上的讲话。
(2)《邓小平文选》(1975年-1982年),人民出版社,1983年7月版,第149~150页。
(3)《邓小平思想年谱(1975-1997)》,中央文献出版社,1998年11月版,第126页。
(4)《邓小平文选》(1975-1982年),人民出版社,1983年7月版,第360页。
(1)根据世界银行人口数据计算。https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
(1)1934年,法国人口学家阿道夫·兰德里(Adolphe Landry)也提出了相似的观点,他发现出生率下降与地区经济持续增长同时出现的现象较为普遍。美国人口学家佛兰克·诺特斯坦(Frank Notestein)在20世纪40和50年代进一步发展了这一理论,并用人口转型的角度对其他国家的人口趋势进行预测。
(1)数据来自世界卫生组织(WTO),这里以瑞典为例是因为瑞典是唯一一个记录了长期婴儿死亡率的国家。
(2)根据2015年美国农业部营养政策与促进中心测算,对于一个美国中产家庭抚养一个孩子到17岁平均需要23.36万美元,而在英国抚养一个孩子到21岁平均需要22.92万英镑,分别达到了当年家庭收入中位数的4.5倍和6倍。
(3)“世代交替水平”之所以高于2,是因为儿童在成长过程中可能出现夭折的情况。综合各国儿童死亡率的情况,国际上一般把TFR=2.1作为维持代际人口数量不变的生育率。
(1)“World Population Prospects:The 2017Revision”https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html
(2)《社会保障绿皮书(2019)》由“社会保障绿皮书”编写组与社会科学文献出版社共同发布。
(1)本段数据均来自世界银行,人均GDP以2010年不变价美元计算。
(2)假设劳动参与率不变,一个人进入劳动力市场的平均年龄为20岁,平均退休年龄为60岁。
(1)假设增长模型的生产函数为Y=AKαL1-α,其中Y表示产出,A表示技术,K表示资本,L表示劳动力,α反映了资本和劳动力的相对回报份额。在文献中,α=1/3是一个较为常见的取值,而对中国资本回报率的实证估计结果也大致在这一数值附近,如白重恩和张琼(2014)等。
(2)这意味着,假设索罗模型中的资本存量(K)以及全要素生产率(A)保持不变。
(1)根据卫计委发布的《中国卫生和计划生育事业发展统计公报2015》推算。
(1)生育率数据来自世界银行数据库。https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
(1)根据1982年全国人口普查数据和2015年1%人口抽样调查数据计算。