新中国70年经济发展质量:制度红利与人口红利的叠加效应
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摘要
作为从计划经济模式向市场经济模式成功转型的发展中经济体,新中国70年的经济发展提供了一个不可多得的自然试验场景。通过新中国70年经济发展历程的回顾,本文发现:尽管市场经济的"制度红利"、劳动力供给的"人口红利"均为经济发展质量提升的重要因素,但二者难以单独发挥作用。只有当"制度红利"与"人口红利"叠加时,才能引致经济发展质量的持续提高。综合运用中国与世界其他主要经济体的长时段跨国数据,本文以GDP、劳动生产率与全要素生产率的相对增速变化作为衡量指标,就新中国70年经济发展质量的变化趋势、动力机制进行了全面的实证研究。实证分析表明:新中国70年来,中国经济发展质量从新中国成立初期的低位震荡逐渐转向平衡增长,资源配置效率、经济结构逐渐趋于优化,开放效应与学习效应对经济发展的促进效应日益凸显。未来中国经济的高质量发展,需要通过进一步改革充分释放"制度红利"和"人口红利"的叠加效应。
As the developing economy which has successfully transformed from a planned economy to a market economy,the economic development of New China in the past 70 years has provided a valuable natural experiment.Through a review of the economic development in past 70 years of New China,this paper shows that although the"institutional dividend"of market economy and the"demographic dividend"of labor supply are both important factors to improve the quality of economic development,but they are difficult to play a role isolated.Only when the"institutional dividend"and"demographic dividend"are superimposed,which can continuously improve the quality of economic development.By comprehensive using the long|term cross|border data from China and other major economies in the world,this paper conducts a comprehensive empirical study on the trend of change and dynamic mechanism of economic development quality in the 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China,which measured by relative growth rate of GDP,labor productivity and total factor productivity.The empirical analysis reveals that in the past 70 years,the quality of economic development in China has gradually changed from the low|level oscillation in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic to the balanced growth,the efficiency of resource allocation and the economic structure have gradually become optimized,also the facilitating effect of the international and learning effects on economic development have become increasingly emerging.Therefore,the high-quality development of China's economy needs to fully release the superposition effect by"institutional dividend"and"demographic dividend"through further reform in the future.
As the developing economy which has successfully transformed from a planned economy to a market economy,the economic development of New China in the past 70 years has provided a valuable natural experiment.Through a review of the economic development in past 70 years of New China,this paper shows that although the"institutional dividend"of market economy and the"demographic dividend"of labor supply are both important factors to improve the quality of economic development,but they are difficult to play a role isolated.Only when the"institutional dividend"and"demographic dividend"are superimposed,which can continuously improve the quality of economic development.By comprehensive using the long|term cross|border data from China and other major economies in the world,this paper conducts a comprehensive empirical study on the trend of change and dynamic mechanism of economic development quality in the 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China,which measured by relative growth rate of GDP,labor productivity and total factor productivity.The empirical analysis reveals that in the past 70 years,the quality of economic development in China has gradually changed from the low|level oscillation in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic to the balanced growth,the efficiency of resource allocation and the economic structure have gradually become optimized,also the facilitating effect of the international and learning effects on economic development have become increasingly emerging.Therefore,the high-quality development of China's economy needs to fully release the superposition effect by"institutional dividend"and"demographic dividend"through further reform in the future.
引文
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(1)为便于时序分析和跨国比较,本文将人均GDP按2017年不变价格美元进行了调整。
(1)从生育性别偏好角度,部分文献研究了人口转型对于经济增长产生作用的其他微观机制(Wei and Zhang,2011a;Wei and Zhang,2011b)。上述研究发现,由于传统文化中对男性的生育偏好,随着人口转型期生育子女机会成本的增加,中国出现更为突出的“剩男”现象。为增加男性后代在未来婚姻市场上的竞争力,生育男性的家户将进行更多的储蓄-投资行为,并且创业概率更高;这也是造成人口转型期中国经济高储蓄率、高创业率的一个重要微观原因。
(1)有趣的是,通过查阅有关新中国70年经济发展的若干最新文献(任保平、张倩,2019;李金华,2019),笔者发现:对于新中国成立以来中国经济发展的定量分析,现有文献仍主要侧重于1978年以后;对于新中国成立的前30年,现有研究多为背景性叙述。
(1)根据世界银行的统计原则,脆弱和受冲突影响等情况下的经济体不纳入投入-产出效率计算。
(2)由于数据可获性问题,对于除中国以外的其他经济体,我们采用世界银行披露的资本形成数据作为全社会固定资产投资的代理变量。
(1)为进行长时段对比,对于人均GDP增长率,我们按2017年不变价格美元人均GDP进行计算。
(2)举例而言,在“文化大革命”(1966-1976年)的10年时间,城镇职工工资一直被冻结,只是在1971年底对总数30%的职工提高过一次工资,主要还是出于粉碎林彪集团后的政治需要。直到1977年8月,国务院出台《关于调整部分职工工资的通知》后,我国60%的城镇职工工资才获得一定程度提高;直到1978年2~5月,城镇部门才开始建立加班工资、奖金、计件工资等激励劳动积极性的工资制度。引自曾璧钧、林木西:《新中国经济史(1949-1989)》,经济日报出版社,1990年,第296-297页。
(3)赵德馨:《中华人民共和国经济史(1967-1984)》,河南人民出版社,1989年,第400页。
(1)中共中央文献研究室:《新中国成立以来重要文献选编》,第九册,中央文献出版社,1994年,第308页。
(1)所谓TFP指数,本文测算的是中国TFP相对于相同年份世界前沿技术水平TFP的百分比(0~100)。
(2)《中国共产党第八届中央委员会第九次全体会议公报》,《新华月报》,1961年第2期,第1-2页。
(1)赵德馨:《中华人民共和国经济史(1967-1984)》,河南人民出版社,1989年,第400页。
(2)参见《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》,1993年。
(1)按1960-2017年,中美两国人口规模4.25∶1的平均值进行推算。
(1)根据世界银行统计规则,东亚其他国家和地区剔除了高收入国家,是不包括中国在内的东亚其他发展中国家和地区的数据加总。
(2)例如,1960年中国人均GDP为89.5现价美元,同期东亚其他发展中经济体为89.8现价美元,两者仅相差0.3现价美元。
(3)同年,中国人均GDP为157现价美元,东亚其他发展中经济体为162美元,中国为东亚其他发展中经济体平均水平的97%。
(4)同年,中国人均GDP为156美元,东亚其他发展中经济体为213美元。
(5)例如,中国与同为东亚经济体的越南、朝鲜、老挝、蒙古均具有相同的社会主义制度。
(6)《邓小平文选》(第3卷),人民出版社,2001年,第375、228-329页。
(1)在国民收入账户的宏观经济分析中,为便于跨产业部门比较,我们采用人均增加值作为劳动生产率的代理变量。
(1)刘国光:《中国十个五年计划研究报告》,人民出版社,2006年,第389页。
(2)苏星:《新中国经济史》,中共中央党校出版社,1999年,第637-638页。
(1)为便于跨国比较,进出口贸易总额我们按2017年不变价格美元进行了调整。
(2)汪海波:《新中国工业经济史(1958-1965)》,经济管理出版社,1995年,第127-128页。
(3)这些技术引进方案包括1972年国家计委《关于进口成套化纤、化肥技术设备的报告》《关于进口一米七连续式轧板机问题的报告》《关于进口成套化工设备的请示报告》以及1973年《关于增加设备进口、扩大经济交流的请示报告》,总进口金额约43亿美元,因此简称为“四三方案”。
(1)从1982年开始,中国进出口贸易中包括了服务贸易数据统计。
(2)Li et.al(2018)测算了全球最大30个经济体的外贸依存度,结果发现中国在其中位居第21位,中国的外贸依存度实际上在全球仅位居中游水平。
(1)根据世界银行统计标准,高等教育入学率是指在全部劳动适龄人口中,在高中毕业5年后人群中接受过高等教育的人员占比。
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(1)为便于时序分析和跨国比较,本文将人均GDP按2017年不变价格美元进行了调整。
(1)从生育性别偏好角度,部分文献研究了人口转型对于经济增长产生作用的其他微观机制(Wei and Zhang,2011a;Wei and Zhang,2011b)。上述研究发现,由于传统文化中对男性的生育偏好,随着人口转型期生育子女机会成本的增加,中国出现更为突出的“剩男”现象。为增加男性后代在未来婚姻市场上的竞争力,生育男性的家户将进行更多的储蓄-投资行为,并且创业概率更高;这也是造成人口转型期中国经济高储蓄率、高创业率的一个重要微观原因。
(1)有趣的是,通过查阅有关新中国70年经济发展的若干最新文献(任保平、张倩,2019;李金华,2019),笔者发现:对于新中国成立以来中国经济发展的定量分析,现有文献仍主要侧重于1978年以后;对于新中国成立的前30年,现有研究多为背景性叙述。
(1)根据世界银行的统计原则,脆弱和受冲突影响等情况下的经济体不纳入投入-产出效率计算。
(2)由于数据可获性问题,对于除中国以外的其他经济体,我们采用世界银行披露的资本形成数据作为全社会固定资产投资的代理变量。
(1)为进行长时段对比,对于人均GDP增长率,我们按2017年不变价格美元人均GDP进行计算。
(2)举例而言,在“文化大革命”(1966-1976年)的10年时间,城镇职工工资一直被冻结,只是在1971年底对总数30%的职工提高过一次工资,主要还是出于粉碎林彪集团后的政治需要。直到1977年8月,国务院出台《关于调整部分职工工资的通知》后,我国60%的城镇职工工资才获得一定程度提高;直到1978年2~5月,城镇部门才开始建立加班工资、奖金、计件工资等激励劳动积极性的工资制度。引自曾璧钧、林木西:《新中国经济史(1949-1989)》,经济日报出版社,1990年,第296-297页。
(3)赵德馨:《中华人民共和国经济史(1967-1984)》,河南人民出版社,1989年,第400页。
(1)中共中央文献研究室:《新中国成立以来重要文献选编》,第九册,中央文献出版社,1994年,第308页。
(1)所谓TFP指数,本文测算的是中国TFP相对于相同年份世界前沿技术水平TFP的百分比(0~100)。
(2)《中国共产党第八届中央委员会第九次全体会议公报》,《新华月报》,1961年第2期,第1-2页。
(1)赵德馨:《中华人民共和国经济史(1967-1984)》,河南人民出版社,1989年,第400页。
(2)参见《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》,1993年。
(1)按1960-2017年,中美两国人口规模4.25∶1的平均值进行推算。
(1)根据世界银行统计规则,东亚其他国家和地区剔除了高收入国家,是不包括中国在内的东亚其他发展中国家和地区的数据加总。
(2)例如,1960年中国人均GDP为89.5现价美元,同期东亚其他发展中经济体为89.8现价美元,两者仅相差0.3现价美元。
(3)同年,中国人均GDP为157现价美元,东亚其他发展中经济体为162美元,中国为东亚其他发展中经济体平均水平的97%。
(4)同年,中国人均GDP为156美元,东亚其他发展中经济体为213美元。
(5)例如,中国与同为东亚经济体的越南、朝鲜、老挝、蒙古均具有相同的社会主义制度。
(6)《邓小平文选》(第3卷),人民出版社,2001年,第375、228-329页。
(1)在国民收入账户的宏观经济分析中,为便于跨产业部门比较,我们采用人均增加值作为劳动生产率的代理变量。
(1)刘国光:《中国十个五年计划研究报告》,人民出版社,2006年,第389页。
(2)苏星:《新中国经济史》,中共中央党校出版社,1999年,第637-638页。
(1)为便于跨国比较,进出口贸易总额我们按2017年不变价格美元进行了调整。
(2)汪海波:《新中国工业经济史(1958-1965)》,经济管理出版社,1995年,第127-128页。
(3)这些技术引进方案包括1972年国家计委《关于进口成套化纤、化肥技术设备的报告》《关于进口一米七连续式轧板机问题的报告》《关于进口成套化工设备的请示报告》以及1973年《关于增加设备进口、扩大经济交流的请示报告》,总进口金额约43亿美元,因此简称为“四三方案”。
(1)从1982年开始,中国进出口贸易中包括了服务贸易数据统计。
(2)Li et.al(2018)测算了全球最大30个经济体的外贸依存度,结果发现中国在其中位居第21位,中国的外贸依存度实际上在全球仅位居中游水平。
(1)根据世界银行统计标准,高等教育入学率是指在全部劳动适龄人口中,在高中毕业5年后人群中接受过高等教育的人员占比。