中国经济增长中的两次人口红利研究
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摘要
本文利用中国1987～2008年省级面板数据,研究了人口抚养比下降和老年抚养比上升对经济增长的影响。本文发现:20多年来,人口抚养比下降的"第一次人口红利"效应和老年抚养比上升的"第二次人口红利"效应同时存在,都对中国经济的发展作出了贡献;如果生育率和经济发展模式不变,未来老龄化产生的"第二次人口红利"效应,至多为其损失的"第一次人口红利"的40%;相对于单纯调整人口结构,健全社会保障制度、提高公共教育投入水平,可能是克服老龄化问题的更好途径。
This paper analyzes the effects of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the rise of the elderly on the china economic growth over the last 30 years.This paper finds that: 1) the "first demographic dividend" of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the "second demographic dividend" of the rise of the elderly both exist and make a contribution to the economic growth;2) if the fertility rate and developmental pattern remain and the old dependency ratio grow in the future,the gain of the "second demographic dividend" is at most the 2/5 of the cost of the reversal of the "first demographic dividend";3) improving the social security system and the public education system may be the better way than the policies which focus too much attention on changing the aging structure.
This paper analyzes the effects of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the rise of the elderly on the china economic growth over the last 30 years.This paper finds that: 1) the "first demographic dividend" of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the "second demographic dividend" of the rise of the elderly both exist and make a contribution to the economic growth;2) if the fertility rate and developmental pattern remain and the old dependency ratio grow in the future,the gain of the "second demographic dividend" is at most the 2/5 of the cost of the reversal of the "first demographic dividend";3) improving the social security system and the public education system may be the better way than the policies which focus too much attention on changing the aging structure.
引文
[1]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应[J].人口研究,2004,(5).
[2]Mason,A.,T.Kinugasa.East Asian Economic Development:Two Demographic Dividends[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2008,(19).
[3]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,(4).
[4]同[2].
[5]Fukuda,S.,R.Morozumi.Economic Growth under the Demographic Transition:A Theory and Some International Evidence[M]//Onfri.The Economics of an Ageing Population.UK:Edward Elgar Pub.,2004:14-24.
[6]同[3].
[7]同[5].
[8]同[1].
[9]同[5].
[10]同[1].
[11]同[5].
[12]刘永平,陆铭.放松计划生育机制将如何影响经济增长[J].经济学,2008,(4).
[13]Acemoglu,D.,S.Johnson.Disease and Development:The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth[J].Journal of PoliticalEconomy,2007,115.
[14]同[3].
[15]Cervellati,M.,U.Sunde.Life Expectancy and Economic Growth:The Role of the Demographic Transition[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2011,(16).
[16]同[5].
[17]尹银,周俊山.人口红利在中国经济增长中的作用[J].南开经济研究,2012,(2).
[18]Manuelli,R.E.,A.Seshadri.Explaining International Fertility Differences[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2009,124.
[19]Croix,D.,M.Doepke.Inequality and Growth:Why Differential Fertility Matters[J].American Economic Review,2003,93.
[20]同[5].
[21]同[19].
[22]同[1].
[23]同[3].
[24]Roodman,D.How to Do xtabond2:An Introduction to“Difference”and“System”GMM in Stata[J].Stata Journal,2009,(9).
[25]同[5].
[26]同[13].
[27]同[1].
[28]同[15].
[29]Kosai,Y.,J.Saito,N.Yashiro.Declining Population and Sustained Economic Growth:Can They Coexist[J].American EconomicReview,1998,88.
[2]Mason,A.,T.Kinugasa.East Asian Economic Development:Two Demographic Dividends[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2008,(19).
[3]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010,(4).
[4]同[2].
[5]Fukuda,S.,R.Morozumi.Economic Growth under the Demographic Transition:A Theory and Some International Evidence[M]//Onfri.The Economics of an Ageing Population.UK:Edward Elgar Pub.,2004:14-24.
[6]同[3].
[7]同[5].
[8]同[1].
[9]同[5].
[10]同[1].
[11]同[5].
[12]刘永平,陆铭.放松计划生育机制将如何影响经济增长[J].经济学,2008,(4).
[13]Acemoglu,D.,S.Johnson.Disease and Development:The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth[J].Journal of PoliticalEconomy,2007,115.
[14]同[3].
[15]Cervellati,M.,U.Sunde.Life Expectancy and Economic Growth:The Role of the Demographic Transition[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2011,(16).
[16]同[5].
[17]尹银,周俊山.人口红利在中国经济增长中的作用[J].南开经济研究,2012,(2).
[18]Manuelli,R.E.,A.Seshadri.Explaining International Fertility Differences[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2009,124.
[19]Croix,D.,M.Doepke.Inequality and Growth:Why Differential Fertility Matters[J].American Economic Review,2003,93.
[20]同[5].
[21]同[19].
[22]同[1].
[23]同[3].
[24]Roodman,D.How to Do xtabond2:An Introduction to“Difference”and“System”GMM in Stata[J].Stata Journal,2009,(9).
[25]同[5].
[26]同[13].
[27]同[1].
[28]同[15].
[29]Kosai,Y.,J.Saito,N.Yashiro.Declining Population and Sustained Economic Growth:Can They Coexist[J].American EconomicReview,1998,88.