GRAPES-Mesov3.1在西南地区2011年汛期的预报检验分析
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摘要
基于GRAPES-Mesov3.1模式建立的GRAPES-Meso中尺度模式系统在西南区域气象中心运行稳定,该系统于2011年5月投入试验运行。应用GRAPES模式分析产品,NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料,实况资料以及2011年西南低涡探空加密观测资料等,对2011年汛期GRAPES-Meso系统的预报进行统计检验与天气过程分析。结果表明,模式对2011年8月川渝持续高温、9月16~18日四川东北部大暴雨等高影响天气过程有较强的预报能力,这对实际天气预报有着积极的指导意义。预报与实况偏差主要表现在模式通常超报云南地区降水,而对西南其他地区易漏报。模式通常低报青藏高原到四川西部气温,高报四川东部及重庆地区气温。预报高度场持续偏低,西南低空急流预报偏强,对流层中低层比湿偏低,这些可能是造成降水强度偏弱、降水落区偏北、强降水落区偏小的主要原因。对流层中低层高度场持续偏低,低空急流偏强与模式温度预报偏高和加热不均匀有关。同时模式对平原地区较高原山地预报要好,误差通常随等压面高度降低而增大,在一定程度上表明复杂地形对模式预报影响较大。
GRAPES-Meso Model System,constructed based on model GRAPES-Mesov3. 1,is running stably in Southwestern Meteorology Regional Center. The model system came into run in May 2011. The performance of the model GRPAES-Meso is verified in statistics and synoptic by applying the initial analysis data of GRAPES-Meso,NCEP reanalysis data of 1° × 1°resolution,the routine observational data as well as the sounding-intensified data of Southwestern Vortex in 2011. The results show that the model has well capability of predicting high impact weather such as the sustained high temperature in Aug.,2011,the downpour in northeastern Sichuan during 16-18 Sept. The main predicting errors are that the model is likely to aggrandize precipitation in Yunnan and to miss rains in other areas of southwestern China. The model always predicts temperature lower than the observation in the Tibet Plateau including the western Sichuan province but higher in the eastern Sichuan and Chongqing. Noticeably,the height field in Southwestern China has been lowered by the model,apart from Low-level Jet aggrandized and humidity in the middle troposphere reduced compared to the observation. On the one hand,these errors are related to the asymmetrical heating in the air; on the other hand,they may key factors making the model to produce a weakened precipitation,farther north location and smaller range of precipitation in Southwestern China. In general,the model behaves better in the plain area than in the plateau,which reveals to some extent the influence of the complex terrain to the model prediction.
GRAPES-Meso Model System,constructed based on model GRAPES-Mesov3. 1,is running stably in Southwestern Meteorology Regional Center. The model system came into run in May 2011. The performance of the model GRPAES-Meso is verified in statistics and synoptic by applying the initial analysis data of GRAPES-Meso,NCEP reanalysis data of 1° × 1°resolution,the routine observational data as well as the sounding-intensified data of Southwestern Vortex in 2011. The results show that the model has well capability of predicting high impact weather such as the sustained high temperature in Aug.,2011,the downpour in northeastern Sichuan during 16-18 Sept. The main predicting errors are that the model is likely to aggrandize precipitation in Yunnan and to miss rains in other areas of southwestern China. The model always predicts temperature lower than the observation in the Tibet Plateau including the western Sichuan province but higher in the eastern Sichuan and Chongqing. Noticeably,the height field in Southwestern China has been lowered by the model,apart from Low-level Jet aggrandized and humidity in the middle troposphere reduced compared to the observation. On the one hand,these errors are related to the asymmetrical heating in the air; on the other hand,they may key factors making the model to produce a weakened precipitation,farther north location and smaller range of precipitation in Southwestern China. In general,the model behaves better in the plain area than in the plateau,which reveals to some extent the influence of the complex terrain to the model prediction.
引文
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[16]王瑞春,龚建东,张林.GRAPES变分同化系统中动力平衡约束的统计求解[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(2):129-138.
[17]李昊睿,丁伟钰,薛纪善,等.FY-2E云迹风资料的高度调整对“灿都”(1003)台风路径数值预报影响的研究[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(3):348-356.
[18]杨军丽,沈学顺.GRAPES单柱模式的试验研究[J].气象学报,2011,70(2):275-289.
[19]王雨,李莉.GRAPES-Mesov3.0模式预报效果检验[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(5):254-234.
[20]熊秋芬.GRAEPS-Meso模式的降水格点检验和站点检验分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):185-193.
[21]彭新东,常燕,王式功.GRAPES模式对2008年两次强降水过程的数值预报检验[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):321-330.
[22]徐双柱,张兵,谌伟.GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析[J].气象,2007,33(11):65-71.
[23]康岚,冯汉中,屠妮妮,等.Grapes模式预报西南地区夏季2m温度的检验评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):26-32.
[24]何光碧,肖玉华,屠妮妮,等.GRAPES-Meso模式对一次强降水过程的预报及误差分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):8-17.
[25]李勇,王雨.2007年夏季GRAPES_Meso15及30 km模式对比检验[J].气象,2008,34(10):81-889.
[26]张兵,钟敏.GRAPES模式对湖北省汛期强降水预报的分类检验分析[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):137-178.
[27]秦贺,赵克明,汤浩,等.新疆中强天气过程GRAPES区域模式降水预报检验[J].沙漠与绿州气象,2010,4(6):12-15.
[28]陈超君,王东海,李国平,等.冬季高海拔地形下GRAPES-Meso要素预报的检验评估[J].气象,2012,28(6):657-668.
[2]张人禾,沈学顺.中国国家级新一代业务数值预报系统GRAPES的发展[J].2008,科学通报,53(20):2393-2395.
[3]陈德辉,薛纪善,杨学胜,等.GRAPES新一代全球/区域多尺度统一数值预报模式总体设计研究[J].科学通报,2008,53(20):2396-2407.
[4]薛纪善,庄世宇,朱国富,等.GRAPES新一代全球/区域变分同化系统研究[J].科学通报,2008,53(20):2408-2417.
[5]彭新东,李兴良.多尺度大气数值预报的技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(2):129-138.
[6]薛海乐,沈学顺,苏勇.地形湍流拖曳力参数化及在GRAPES中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(2):169-189.
[7]徐国强,陈德辉,薛纪善,等.GRAPES物理过程的优化试验及程序结构设计[J].科学通报,2008,53(20):2428-2434.
[8]朱国富,薛纪善,张华,等.GRAPES变分同化系统中卫星辐射率资料的直接同化[J].科学通报,2008,53(20):2424-2427.
[9]沈学顺,王明欢,肖锋.GRAPES模式中高精度正定保形物质平流方案的研究Ⅰ:理论方案设计与理想试验[J].气象学报,2011,69(1):1-15.
[10]王明欢,沈学顺,肖锋.模式中高精度正定保形物质平流方案的研究Ⅱ:连续实际预报试验[J].气象学报,69(1):16-25.
[11]陈子通,万齐林,沈学顺.GRAPES区域模式水汽平流方案的比较与改进[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(1):1-6.
[12]徐国强,杨学胜,黄丽萍,等.GRAPES中地形重力波拖曳物理过程的引进和应用试验[J].2010,气象学报,68(5):631-639.
[13]徐国强,陈德辉,张红亮,等.GRAPES模式中物理过程时间计算精度对降水预报的影响[J].2010,大气科学,34(5):875-881.
[14]屈右铭,陆维松,蔡荣辉,等.GRAPES-Meso云分析系统的设计与试验[J].气象,2010,36(10):37-45.
[15]马旭林,庄照荣,薛纪善,等.GRAPES非静力数值预报模式的三维变分资料同化系统的发展[J].气象学报,2009,67(1):50-60.
[16]王瑞春,龚建东,张林.GRAPES变分同化系统中动力平衡约束的统计求解[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(2):129-138.
[17]李昊睿,丁伟钰,薛纪善,等.FY-2E云迹风资料的高度调整对“灿都”(1003)台风路径数值预报影响的研究[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(3):348-356.
[18]杨军丽,沈学顺.GRAPES单柱模式的试验研究[J].气象学报,2011,70(2):275-289.
[19]王雨,李莉.GRAPES-Mesov3.0模式预报效果检验[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(5):254-234.
[20]熊秋芬.GRAEPS-Meso模式的降水格点检验和站点检验分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):185-193.
[21]彭新东,常燕,王式功.GRAPES模式对2008年两次强降水过程的数值预报检验[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):321-330.
[22]徐双柱,张兵,谌伟.GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析[J].气象,2007,33(11):65-71.
[23]康岚,冯汉中,屠妮妮,等.Grapes模式预报西南地区夏季2m温度的检验评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(2):26-32.
[24]何光碧,肖玉华,屠妮妮,等.GRAPES-Meso模式对一次强降水过程的预报及误差分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):8-17.
[25]李勇,王雨.2007年夏季GRAPES_Meso15及30 km模式对比检验[J].气象,2008,34(10):81-889.
[26]张兵,钟敏.GRAPES模式对湖北省汛期强降水预报的分类检验分析[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):137-178.
[27]秦贺,赵克明,汤浩,等.新疆中强天气过程GRAPES区域模式降水预报检验[J].沙漠与绿州气象,2010,4(6):12-15.
[28]陈超君,王东海,李国平,等.冬季高海拔地形下GRAPES-Meso要素预报的检验评估[J].气象,2012,28(6):657-668.