基于广义稳定人口模型的中国生育率估计
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摘要
文章利用人口普查年龄分布数据和基于广义稳定人口模型的两种生育率估计方法,即整合法和变量r法,对中国1982年以来各普查间的生育水平进行估计。利用整合法估计的是出生率,通过出生率换算为出生人数,进而估计生育率。利用变量r法估计的是净再生产率,通过净再生产率转换为对生育率的估计。整合法对1982~1990年和2000~2010年普查间平均出生率和出生人数的估计,与国家统计局公布的数据具有较高的一致性;而对1990~2000年普查间的估计则要明显低于国家统计局的公布值。由此估计的1982~1990年、1990~2000年和2000~2010年各普查间的平均总和生育率依次为2.63、1.68和1.56。利用变量r法对各普查间的平均总和生育率的估计分别为2.60、1.61和1.68。因而,2000~2010年中国平均生育率的估计应该在1.6左右。
Two fertility estimation approaches based on the generalized stable population model using census age distributions are used in this paper to assess Chinese fertility levels in the three inter- censual periods over 1982- 2010. The integrated approach has obtained estimates of birth rate and number of births that are consistent for the 1982- 1990 and 2000- 2010 inter- censual periods with,but are markedly lower for the 1990- 2000 period than the published estimates by National Bureau of Statistics of China. The corresponding estimates of the three inter- censual total fertility are 2. 65,1. 68 and 1. 56 respectively. The variable r method results in estimates of the three inter- censual total fertility being 2. 60,1. 61 and 1. 68 respectively. Thus China's overall fertility level in the 2000 s is around 1. 6.
Two fertility estimation approaches based on the generalized stable population model using census age distributions are used in this paper to assess Chinese fertility levels in the three inter- censual periods over 1982- 2010. The integrated approach has obtained estimates of birth rate and number of births that are consistent for the 1982- 1990 and 2000- 2010 inter- censual periods with,but are markedly lower for the 1990- 2000 period than the published estimates by National Bureau of Statistics of China. The corresponding estimates of the three inter- censual total fertility are 2. 65,1. 68 and 1. 56 respectively. The variable r method results in estimates of the three inter- censual total fertility being 2. 60,1. 61 and 1. 68 respectively. Thus China's overall fertility level in the 2000 s is around 1. 6.
引文
1陈卫.2000年以来中国生育水平评估.学海,2014;1:16-25Chen Wei.2014.Assessment on the Chinese Fertility Level since 2000.Academia Bimestris 1:16-25.
2 陈卫,靳永爱.2014.中国计划生育政策的执行及其影响因素—基于微观的视角.人口与经济,2014;4:118-128Chen Wei and Jin Yongai.2014.How Well Has China's Family Planning Policy Worked?A Micro Level Analysis.Population and Economics 4:118-128.
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4 陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计.人口研究,2015;5:32-39Chen Wei and Zhang Lingling.2015.A Reassessment of China’s Recent Fertility.Population Research 5:32-39.
5 国家统计局.第四次全国人口普查公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200204/t20020404_30320.html,1990-10-30National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.1990.Communique on the Forth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200204/t20020404_30320.html,30 October.
6 国家统计局.第五次全国人口普查公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200203/t20020331_30314.html,2001-05-15National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.2001.Communique on the Fifth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200203/t20020331_30314.html,15 May.
7 国家统计局.2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/201104/t20110428_30327.html,2011-04-28National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.2011.Communique on Major Figures of the Sixth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/201104/t20110428_30327.html,28 April.
8 杨凡,赵梦晗.2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计.人口研究,2013;2:54-65Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan.2013.China’s Fertility Level since 2000:A Reestimation.Population Research 2:54-65.
9 赵梦晗.2015.2000~2010年中国生育水平估计.人口研究,2015;5:49-58Zhao Menghan.2015.An Estimation of Fertility Level in China,2000-2010.Population Research 5:49-58.
10 中国人民大学人口研究所信息处理室.中国1981年全国及分省市简略生命表.人口研究,1987;1:59-64Information Office of Institute of Population Research of Renmin University of China.1987.China 1981 Abridged Life Tables by Province.Population Research 1:59-64.
11 Cai Yong.2008.An Assessment of China’s Fertility Level Using the Variable-r Method.Demography 2:271-281.
12 Preston,Samuel H.and Ansley J.Coale.1982.Age Structure,Growth,Attrition,and Accession:A New Synthesis.Population Index 48:217-259.
13 Preston,Samuel H.1983.An Integrated System for Demographic Estimation from Two Age Distributions.Demography 2:213-226.
14 Preston,Samuel H.,P.Heuveline,and M.Guillot.2001.Demography:Measuring and Modeling Population Processes.Oxford:Blackwell Publishers.
1 2010年的总和生育率是基于2015年户籍统计中的5岁人口数估计的,而户籍统计中低年龄的数据可能是不完整的、偏低的,因此2010年的总和生育率也可能是被低估的。
2 陈卫,靳永爱.2014.中国计划生育政策的执行及其影响因素—基于微观的视角.人口与经济,2014;4:118-128Chen Wei and Jin Yongai.2014.How Well Has China's Family Planning Policy Worked?A Micro Level Analysis.Population and Economics 4:118-128.
3 陈卫,杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计.人口研究,2014;6:16-24Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui.2014.China's Fertility in 2010:An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method.Population Research 6:16-24.
4 陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计.人口研究,2015;5:32-39Chen Wei and Zhang Lingling.2015.A Reassessment of China’s Recent Fertility.Population Research 5:32-39.
5 国家统计局.第四次全国人口普查公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200204/t20020404_30320.html,1990-10-30National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.1990.Communique on the Forth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200204/t20020404_30320.html,30 October.
6 国家统计局.第五次全国人口普查公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200203/t20020331_30314.html,2001-05-15National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.2001.Communique on the Fifth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/200203/t20020331_30314.html,15 May.
7 国家统计局.2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报(第1号).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/201104/t20110428_30327.html,2011-04-28National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.2011.Communique on Major Figures of the Sixth National Population Census(No.1).http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/201104/t20110428_30327.html,28 April.
8 杨凡,赵梦晗.2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计.人口研究,2013;2:54-65Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan.2013.China’s Fertility Level since 2000:A Reestimation.Population Research 2:54-65.
9 赵梦晗.2015.2000~2010年中国生育水平估计.人口研究,2015;5:49-58Zhao Menghan.2015.An Estimation of Fertility Level in China,2000-2010.Population Research 5:49-58.
10 中国人民大学人口研究所信息处理室.中国1981年全国及分省市简略生命表.人口研究,1987;1:59-64Information Office of Institute of Population Research of Renmin University of China.1987.China 1981 Abridged Life Tables by Province.Population Research 1:59-64.
11 Cai Yong.2008.An Assessment of China’s Fertility Level Using the Variable-r Method.Demography 2:271-281.
12 Preston,Samuel H.and Ansley J.Coale.1982.Age Structure,Growth,Attrition,and Accession:A New Synthesis.Population Index 48:217-259.
13 Preston,Samuel H.1983.An Integrated System for Demographic Estimation from Two Age Distributions.Demography 2:213-226.
14 Preston,Samuel H.,P.Heuveline,and M.Guillot.2001.Demography:Measuring and Modeling Population Processes.Oxford:Blackwell Publishers.
1 2010年的总和生育率是基于2015年户籍统计中的5岁人口数估计的,而户籍统计中低年龄的数据可能是不完整的、偏低的,因此2010年的总和生育率也可能是被低估的。