广义稳定人口模型与中国人口估计
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摘要
本文利用人口普查年龄分布数据和广义稳定人口模型,对1982~2010年中国四次人口普查间的生育和死亡水平进行估计。研究表明,1982~1990年、1990~2000年和2000~2010年普查间生育和死亡水平的估计值(除了1990~2000年的生育水平外)都与国家统计局公布的数据表现出高度的一致性。本文估计的1982~1990年和2000~2010年普查间平均出生率和出生人数略高于国家统计局的公布值,而估计的1990~2000年普查间的平均出生率和出生人数要明显低于国家统计局的公布值。本文估计的1982~1990年、1990~2000年和2000~2010年各普查间平均总和生育率分别为2.65、1.68和1.56。本文的研究表明,基于广义稳定人口模型的人口估计方法是一种简便、有效的方法,在人口估计或数据质量评估方面具有很大的应用潜力和价值。
An integrated demographic estimation approach based on the generalized stable population mod-el using census age distributions is used in this paper to reconstruct Chinese fertility and mortality in thethree inter-censual periods over 1982~2010. Results show that fertility and mortality in China have de-creased dramatically,the 1990~2000 fertility was far below replacement,while the 2000~2010 fertility wasslightly over 1.5. Comparing the estimates with those published by China's National Bureau of Statistics,our estimates of birth rate and number of births are only slightly higher for 1982~1990 and 2000~2010 in-ter-censual periods,but are markedly lower for the 1990~2000 period than the NBS estimates. Our esti-mates of life expectancy are largely the same as the NBS estimates across the three inter-censual periods.Since this integrated approach produces estimates fairly insensitive to data errors like differential complete-nessof censuses,estimates presented in this research are likely more accurate than estimates from many ofthe other more restrictive procedures.
An integrated demographic estimation approach based on the generalized stable population mod-el using census age distributions is used in this paper to reconstruct Chinese fertility and mortality in thethree inter-censual periods over 1982~2010. Results show that fertility and mortality in China have de-creased dramatically,the 1990~2000 fertility was far below replacement,while the 2000~2010 fertility wasslightly over 1.5. Comparing the estimates with those published by China's National Bureau of Statistics,our estimates of birth rate and number of births are only slightly higher for 1982~1990 and 2000~2010 in-ter-censual periods,but are markedly lower for the 1990~2000 period than the NBS estimates. Our esti-mates of life expectancy are largely the same as the NBS estimates across the three inter-censual periods.Since this integrated approach produces estimates fairly insensitive to data errors like differential complete-nessof censuses,estimates presented in this research are likely more accurate than estimates from many ofthe other more restrictive procedures.
引文
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[2]杨凡,赵梦晗.2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计[J].人口研究,2013,37(2):54-65.
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[6]赵梦晗.2000~2010年中国生育水平估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(6):49-58.
[7]Preston,Samuel H and Ansley J Coale.Age Structure,Growth,Attrition,and Accession:A New Synthesis[J].Population Index,1982,48:217-259.
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[9]中国人民大学人口研究所信息处理室.中国1981年全国及分省市简略生命表[J].人口研究,1987,(1):59-64.
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[11]陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(5):32-39.
[12]Judith Banister and Kenneth Hill.Mortality in China 1964-2000[J].Population Studies,2004,58(1):55-75.
[13]国家人口发展战略研究课题组.国家人口发展战略研究报告[J].人口研究,2007,31(1):1-10.
[14]崔红艳,徐岚,李睿.对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):10-21.
[2]杨凡,赵梦晗.2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计[J].人口研究,2013,37(2):54-65.
[3]赵梦晗,杨凡.六普数据中婴儿死亡率及儿童死亡概率的质疑与评估[J].人口研究,2013,37(5):68-80.
[4]陈卫.2000年以来中国生育水平评估[J].学海,2014,(1):16-25.
[5]陈卫,杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2014,38(6):16-24.
[6]赵梦晗.2000~2010年中国生育水平估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(6):49-58.
[7]Preston,Samuel H and Ansley J Coale.Age Structure,Growth,Attrition,and Accession:A New Synthesis[J].Population Index,1982,48:217-259.
[8]Preston,Samuel H.An Integrated System for Demographic Estimation from Two Age Distributions[J].Demography,1983,20(2):213-226.
[9]中国人民大学人口研究所信息处理室.中国1981年全国及分省市简略生命表[J].人口研究,1987,(1):59-64.
[10]Zhongwei Zhao and Wei Chen.China’s Far Below-replacement Fertility and Its Long-term Impact:Comments on the Preliminary Results of the 2010 Census[J].Demographic Research,2011,25:819-836.
[11]陈卫,张玲玲.中国近期生育率的再估计[J].人口研究,2015,39(5):32-39.
[12]Judith Banister and Kenneth Hill.Mortality in China 1964-2000[J].Population Studies,2004,58(1):55-75.
[13]国家人口发展战略研究课题组.国家人口发展战略研究报告[J].人口研究,2007,31(1):1-10.
[14]崔红艳,徐岚,李睿.对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):10-21.