摘要
人口老龄化是二十一世纪世界各国所面临或即将面临的一个社会经济问题。上个世纪末西方国家先后进入老龄化社会,随之而产生的经济发展和社会保障问题得到了广泛的关注。有关于人口与经济发展的关系最早可以追溯至马尔萨斯的人口理论,之后哈罗德、多马以及索洛等人将增长理论模型与人口因素相结合,至近年来学术界进一步的将人口年龄结构与经济发展的关系展开研究；养老金制度是经济从自给自足阶段发展到社会大分工阶段之后而诞生的,被凯恩斯主义论证为有助于增加消费倾向和实现宏观经济的均衡,养老金制度作为社会保障的个重要组成部分,在人口老龄化的社会体系中作用尤为显著。
对中国而言,由于上世纪五六十年代婴儿潮出生的人口群体逐渐进入老年,以及九十年代以后新出生人口较以往明显减少,未来几十年内我国老龄化加速进行将是一个必然的趋势。在此背景下,本文提出了三个问题并对之进行研究：
(1)未来我国人口结构的可能走势以及会受到哪些因素的影响?
(2)今后人口结构老龄化对我国经济发展的影响以及应采取哪些措施?
(3)在人口结构老龄化背景下我国养老金体系的可持续性以及养老金相关改革将会带来怎样的改变?
对于第一个问题,本文基于人口学理论以及中国的国情,构建了一个中国城市、镇、农村三层面的人口迭代模型。这一模型是对以往研究中国人口问题的重要推进,体现在多元化和动态化两个方面。通过模型运算表明：我国广义上的劳动力总人口将于2016年达到最高的10.01亿水平,人口总量则将于之后的2026年达到最高的14.2亿水平,此后两者均呈现下降的态势；我国人口总抚养率于2011年达到最低水平,此后一直上升。分层面来看,镇略低于城市,城市明显低于农村；放宽计划生育政策如同一把双刃剑,在导致我国人口总数顶峰增加两千万人的同时,也带来了人口年龄结构的年轻化,长期内的影响利大于弊。
对于第二个问题,本文首先从机理上进行了论述,分析了人口老龄化通过影响一国的储蓄率、资本形成以及劳动力供给,进而对经济发展产生作用的机理。然后构建了一个2007-2050年的中国人口与经济动态可计算一般均衡模型。通过模型的动态化运算,得出人口老龄化将导致我国经济发展的潜力在未来几十年内逐渐降低,既使技术进步,外部环境等因素保持不变,我国经济增长也将由以往10%的常态下降至7%以下。另外,人口老龄化也给我国物价层面和产业结构层面也带来了一系列影响。适度放宽计划生育政策,在经济层面的总体上为正面影响；通过加强对我国人力资本的投入,可以缓解人口因素所带来的部分负面效果,甚至创造出中国人口的第二次红利。以上两项政策作为我国人口老龄化背景下的相关对策,被证明为是切实可行和意义深远的。
对于第三个问题,本文首先分析了我国养老金的现状以及现行政策,然后在结合人口迭代模型和中国人口与经济动态可计算一般均衡模型所得出的人口结构和宏观经济环境相关预测数据的基础上,构建了一个中国养老金收支模型。模型对我国未来养老金体系的可持续性展开了研究。结果表明,短期内,我国养老金收支的缺口主要来源于转轨改革,而在中长期内,人口老龄化趋势将给我国养老金的收支平衡将带来巨大的压力。针对养老金收支的缺口,本文提出应该采取包括推迟退休年龄和国有股份划拨在内的一系列改革措施。具体包括从2012年开始逐步加大划拨国有股份进入养老金帐户的力度,至2050年达到国有股份总量的80%水平；以及从2020年开始,每隔五年提高退休年龄一岁。最后,基于本文所构建的养老金收支模型,具体测算了以上改革改革对我国养老金体系运行的影响。结果表明,在以上改革的推行下,我国及时缓解养老金体系对财政的巨大压力,避免养老金缺口导致政府债务危机,说明养老金改革的政策是卓有成效的。
在对以上三个问题的解答中,具有以下主要创新点：
(1)与中国城乡二元社会结构相结合的人口模型的建模与应用。并包括计划生育政策适度放宽的量化分析以及对经济的影响研究。
(2)动态一般均衡模型的应用和理论拓展。并包括全生命周期理论的模型化处理。
(3)一般均衡视角下人口老龄化对中国经济发展的量化研究。
(4)未来我国养老金收支体系缺口的测算以及相关改革研究。
通过对以上三个问题的研究,本文对我国人口老龄化、经济发展以及养老金之间的相互关系进行了解答,并得到了一系列有价值的对策建议。
The Aging problem is the social problem all the countries are facing sooner or later in the21st Century. Later in last century, western countries went to Aging society firstly; since then, the economy development and social security problem have been focused; academically, the relationship between economy development and population can be traced back to Malthus's population theory; after that, Harrod, Domar and Solow combine the growth theory model with demographic factors; Still recently, the academic group do the further research on age structure and economy development. The pension system was born during the development from self-sufficient stage to social labor division, which was proved to improve the consumption trend and achieve the macro-economy balance. The pension system as an important part of social security, play a significant role in the Aging population social system.
For China, the population group from Baby Boom in50s60s last century grow older, and the new births after90s goes down obviously, therefore China Aging problem will accelerate in the coming decades. Under the condition of Aging problem, the paper propose3problems to study
1. What is the tread of China population structure and its main impact elements?
2. What is the impact of Aging problem to the economy development and what is the corresponding solution?
3Under the condition of Aging problem, what trend of China pension income will be and what kind of change the pension policy transformation will bring?
For the first problem, the paper, based on the population theory and Chinese condition, built a city town country three-layer iteration model. This model is a big improvement compared with the China population problem before, which is reflected in two aspects of diversity and dynamic. The model result shows that, the broad labor population will reach the summit1.001Billion in2016, the whole population will reach its largest level1.42Billion in2026, after that, the both will turn to go down; China dependency ratio has reached its lowest level in2011, since then it is growing up, in segmental speaking, the birth rate in town will be lower than in city, and city's will be obviously lower than countries'. The release of Family Planning has two aspects of impact, it will add20Million people to the summit level of population, as well as make the population structure younger; in the long term, the advantages surpass the disadvantages.
For the second problem, the paper analyzed the Aging problem impacts the economy development through impacting the deposit rate, capital formation and labor supply, it built a2007-2050year China population and economy dynamic computable CGE model. This model not only has the realistic value with combination of the General equilibrium theory with China society and economy feature, but also produces the equation of full life-cycle theory, accomplishes the research methodology on population and economy under the perspective CGE, it is an important innovation. Through the dynamic computing, the results show that, the China Aging problem will reduce the potential of its economy development; Even the advance in technology, external environment and other elements remain unchanged, China economy growth rate will go norm down from10%to below7%. Also it has impact on price level and industrial structure. The proper release of Family Planning will have positive impact on economy. Through the input of China Human Resource, it can ease the negative impact of demographic factor even to achieve the second population bonus. The above two policy as China Aging Problem's corresponding solution, have been proved to be realistic and far-reaching significance
For the third problem, the paper analyzed the current pension condition and policy, and then built a China pension balance model based on population iterative model and computable CGE model to do the search of China future pension system. The results show that, in the short term, China pension system balance gap is mainly from the transformation; in the mid and long term, the Aging problem will bring a big pressure to China pension balance. For the pension income and balance gap, the paper suggests the reform including postponing the retirement age and the allocation of state-owned shares. The detail reform is from2012, gradually allocate the state-owned shares into pension system, and reach the pension's80%in2050; also, from2020, increase the retirement age by one year every5years. Lastly, base on the built pension income balance model, the paper compute in the impact of the reform above to the pension system. With the process of reform, it will timely ease the enormous financial pressure; avoid the pension balance gap to cause the debt crisis.
There have the following mainly innovations in the answers to three questions:
(1) Modeling and application of the combination of population model and the China's urban and rural dual social structure, including the quantitative analysis of proper release the family planning policy, as well as the its effect on the economy.
(2) The application and theoretical development of dynamic general equilibrium model, including a full life-cycle theory model.
(3) On the perspective of general equilibrium, the quantitative impact of aging population on China's economic development.
(4) The research on the gap between China's pension revenue and expenditure, and related reform study.
Through the research on the above three problems, the paper answer the problem of relationship between Aging Economy development and Pension system, and provide a serious of valuable suggestions and solutions.
引文
①参见赖明勇(2007)
①参见肖明智(2012)。
②参见Peter(1997)
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