摘要
世界正经历着由生育率的下降和预期寿命延长带来的人口转变。人口转变早期,人口死亡率率先下降,生育率下降滞后于死亡率,随后少儿人口规模增加、人口抚养负担加重；转变中期劳动力供给充沛、总抚养比下降,这段人口红利期为经济增长提供了一个一次性机会,倘若有良好的宏观经济政策、制度环境加以配合,增长潜力就会转化为现实；人口转变后期人口老龄化迅速发展、老年人规模迅速增加,为经济和社会发展提出挑战。中国和印度是世界上人口最多的两个国家,且同为重要的新兴市场国家,过去经历了相对迅速的经济增长；都在经历人口转变过程,但是步调不同,中国将经历快速的人口老龄化,印度还将享受较长的人口红利期,未来两国的经济增长将面临完全不同的人口背景。因此,研究两国人口转变的过程,分析不同阶段的人口变迁对两国经济发展机遇的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。
首先回顾分析了20世纪40年代末中国建国、印度独立直至2010年两国人口转变的特点,结果发现：中国人口转变的速度远远快于印度。中国的人口机会窗口持续时间为1990年至本世纪30年代。而印度生育率下降缓慢,少儿抚养比和总抚养比下降缓慢,目前刚刚步入人口红利期。改革开放以来,中国充分利用了人口机会窗口给予的发展机会,取得了迅速的经济增长；尽管印度经济增速较之前有所提高、但仍然低于中国。本文以1960-2008年64个国家的数据为基础,使用扩展的索洛模型,纳入人口变量进行实证分析,得出人口转变过程对中国和印度经济增长的总体影响：中国和印度的人均GDP增长与“劳动年龄人口与总人口的增长差异”正相关,与少儿抚养比和老年抚养比负相关,人口变迁解释了中国1960年至2008年人均国内生产总值增长的46%,印度的40.9%。
随着人口转变的继续推进,人口老龄化终将到来。本文以第六次人口普查数据为基础,设定未来中国生育政策不变和分别从近、中、远期开始适度放宽生育政策四种可能的生育水平变化路径,对中国未来人口发展前景进行预测；使用联合国印度人口数据,设定低、中、高三种方案对印度未来人口发展趋势进行预测,并结合联合国对中国和印度2010年至2100年人口前景的展望,发现：未来中印两国将面临完全不同的人口发展前景,未来30年中国的人口老龄化发展迅速,本世纪中叶达到重度人口老龄化水平,本世纪后40年老龄化水平将持续在36%的水平上波动,这对中国未来的人口和经济发展将是重大挑战。而由于印度生育率下降缓慢、平稳,未来很长一段时间内印度仍将享有巨大的人口红利,同时人口老龄化的过程也较为缓慢。因此仅就人口因素来说,未来印度面临的人口前景更为有利。
21世纪上半叶,中国人口将迅速老化、人口问题全面爆发,这将深刻改变中国经济发展的人口基础。人口规模依然庞大、人口总量由增到减、人口红利消弱甚至消失、人口快速老龄化、老年人口规模超过少儿人口规模、人口性别结构失衡加剧、城镇化水平过半、巨大规模的流动人口等问题在中国庞大的人口基数基础之上叠加出现。劳动年龄人口增长停滞和规模缩减、劳动力的老化必然影响中国的经济表现。印度面临着人口机会窗口提供的发展机会,但在利用人口红利的政策环境因素方面有所欠缺。实证分析表明,未来的人口变动将对2008至2050年印度的经济增长有有利影响,而对中国有不利影响。未来中国应当考虑适度放宽生育政策、以调整人口年龄结构,为经济发展提供一个可持续的人口基础。印度面临的则是更加直接的任务,如改善教育和医疗卫生体系、劳动力人口的健康状况,促进就业率和妇女劳动参与率的提升,加强基础设施建设等,这才有可能将人口机会窗口期提供的发展机遇转化为现实的经济增长。
The whole world stands on the brink of a stunning demographic transformation brought about by declining fertility and rising life expectancy. The mortality rates, especially those for infants and children, declining steeply at the outset of the demographic transition, but fertility rates fall only after a lag, countries initially experience large and destabilizing youth bulges. In the last stage, the demographic transition tends to lean against growth as the elderly share of the population increases rapidly and the old-dependency burden rises. Midway through the demographic transition, however, countries enjoy a long period of favorable demographics-often called the demographic dividend or opportunity window-in which society's total dependency burden falls and the share of the population in the working years rises. Although demography may not be destiny, the broader environment such as their level of market and human capital development will play a critical role in determining how effective China and India are in leveraging their demographic dividends and boosting living-standard growth while they are still young-or adjusting to higher old-age dependency burdens when they grow old.
China and India are emerging economies with impressive economic growth rates in the recent past, and both of them are in the top two world ranking of countries based on population size. The two countries are passing through the process of demographic transition, but at different pace and over a different time period. Therefore, it is pertinent to explore the impact of demographic transition of their economic performance both in the past and in the future.
In the first place the article presents a detailed comparative analysisi of the process of demographic transition in China and India. China is passing through the transition process much faster than India; its demographic opportunity window opened from1990s and will remain the same till2030s. India's fertility rate decreased more gently and its demographic opportunity window just started. Second we reviewed the economic development process during the last several decades and find that China achieved much more rapidly economic growth than India. Then we describe the augmented Solow-Swan model extended to include demographic variables that is used for testing the empirical relationship between the demographic transition process and economic growth. The empirical findings are based on data from sixty-four countries over the period1960-2008; reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total dependency ratios. Based on these results we find that population dynamics explain46percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period1960-2008,39percent in India.
Then the article gives out the population prospects of China and India. Based on the data of age-sex specific population in China's Sixth National Population Census, we assume that China will adjust the family planning policy in2015,2030and2050to simulate the population's prospects under the adjustment of the policy in the near future, in the medium and long future, and we use India's population data from the United Nations, sets low, medium and high varients to stimulate India's population prospect. We also summarized the United Nation's World Population Prospects. It convinced our main findings which indicates China will aging dramatically in the next three decades, in the2050s, the elderly population will account for more than thirty percent of the total population, and fluctuate around thirsty-six percent in the last fourty years of this century. The proportion of the population of China that is of working-age was already peaked in2011and decreased thereafter. The proportion of the working-age population of India is projected to increase through2030s, China's demographic window of opportunity is rapidly closing, while India's will remain open until at least2030.
When compared with India, in the short term China has more of the preconditions to take advantage of its demographic window of opportunity and to deal with demographics when they become a potencial drag. These preconditions include more flexible labor markets; less illiteracy and more highly educated people in general, and especially for women, and more open attitudes about women working; higher rates of female labor force participation; a healthier population; better infrastructure; more internal migration and a higher degree of urbanization; and more openness to foreign trade.
In the long term, as the demographic transition continues, China's prospects may be hindered by its aging population, while India will have more favorable demographics than China. At last we map the future prospects of the demographic transition process on economic growth in China and India over the period2008-2050. China have to consider the adjustment of the family planning policy and keep a healthy population age structure, whether India is able to reap a demographic dividend will depend on its ability to meet the challenges of improving its educational system and closing gender gaps in education, improving its health care system, enhancing its infrastructure, and incorporating more women into the workforce.
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