摘要
随着全球老龄化进程的推进,越来越多的国家开始面临老龄化所带来的一系列问题,而这些问题又涉及到经济的各个方面。与此同时,随着经济全球化的不断发展和深化,国际贸易迅猛发展,国际贸易格局和贸易形式也在发生着变化。本文正是以此为背景来研究人口老龄化对贸易收支的影响,这对当前世界经济研究以及人口老龄化研究都有着积极的意义。
首先,本文以人口生命周期假说为理论基础,对经典模型进行调整和简化后建立相关的理论模型,并在理论模型的基础上进一步地进行数值模拟,通过理论分析可以得出结论,人口老龄化会使贸易收支恶化。
其次,在理论分析的基础上,本文又从世界和中国两个层面出发进行了相关的实证分析。在世界方面,本文使用二元选择模型分析了人口老龄化程度对总体贸易收支和双边贸易收支的影响;在中国方面,本文使用面板数据对中国与发达国家的贸易收支进行了相关分析。分析结果显示,相对发展中国家,发达国家的贸易收支更容易受人口老龄化的影响而恶化。
再次,在前面分析的基础上,本文进一步地对消费率的差异、人口转变和老龄化差异、社会保障及国际直接投资等前面理论模型和实证分析中没有考虑到或没有较好考虑到的相关因素进行了探讨,并认为正是由于这些因素的差异,使得不同国家的贸易收支受人口老龄化的影响有所不同,并与人口老龄化对贸易收支的理论影响存在着差异。
最后,本文在前面研究的基础上总结出相关结论,认为人口老龄化在一定程度上会影响到贸易收支,但这种影响是在一定条件下表现出来的,尤其在高收入发达国家和中低收入发展中国家之间有其差异性。在相关结论的基础上,本文进一步地结合人口老龄化的趋势对贸易收支变化作了简单的预测,并给出了对中国的相关启示。
With the advancement of world population aging, more and more countries began to face a series of issue caused by population aging, and these issues are related to many aspects of economy. At the mean time, with the further development of economic globalization, international trade develops rapidly, and world trade patterns and international trade forms are changing. The dissertation made a study of the influence of population aging on the trade balance under such a background, and it is meaningful to the studies of world economy and population aging.
First, based on Life Cycle Hypothesis, the dissertation established a theory model by adjusting and simplifying the classic model, and then, carried out a simulation based on the theory model, to take a theoretical discussion on the influence of population aging on the trade balance. The theoretical analysis shows that population aging could worsen the trade balance.
Second, based on the theoretical analysis, the dissertation carried out empirical analysis from two aspects, world and China. In world's aspect, the dissertation analyzed the influence of population aging on the total trade balance and the bilateral trade balance by using Binary Choice Model. In China's aspect, the dissertation analyzed the trade balance between China and developed countries by using Panel Data Model. The result of empirical analysis shows that, compared to developing countries, the trade balance of developed countries is more likely to be influenced by population aging.
Third, based on the previous analysis, the dissertation took some factors (the difference in consumption, demographic transition and the difference in aging, social security, foreign direct investment) which were ignored in the previous theoretical model and empirical analysis into consideration. The discussion shows that, because of the difference in these factors, influence of population aging on trade balance in different countries is different, and also different from theoretical influence.
Finally, on the basis of the previous research, the dissertation comes to the conclusion that population aging could affect the trade balance in certain extent, but the influence is conditional and especially different between developed countries and developing countries. Based on the conclusion, the dissertation forecast the change of the trade balance by taking the trend of population aging into account, and gave the Enlightenment to China.
引文
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