摘要
20世纪80年代以来,股票和房屋等资产价格的变动对市场经济国家的宏观经济和消费的影响越来越显著,引起各国经济学家的广泛关注。中国自1998年住房制度市场化改革以来,房地产产业已成为国民经济的支柱产业,成为扩大内需,促进经济增长的重要源泉之一。与此同时,近年来中国居民消费率却呈现出逐年下降的趋势。从国际经验看,英美等国的房价上涨都不同程度地提高了居民消费率。国外众多研究表明,在剔除了收入增长对消费的影响之后,房屋资产价格的上涨对居民消费有独立的正向推动作用,即房地产财富效应增加了居民消费。国外学者对房屋价格与消费关系的研究取得了许多引人注目的成果,从最初的理论分析发展到实证检验与预测,从对一个国家的研究发展到对不同金融体系国家的对比,从对单一消费者群体研究发展到对不同年龄群体的研究。这些成果为中国居民消费问题的研究提供了很好的范例,遵循国际研究思路,结合中国实际,将能得出有益的结论与相关的政策建议。
国内对房屋资产价格与居民消费的研究还主要集中在单纯的价格变动对整体消费者的影响上,与国际研究水平还有相当的距离,这就成为本文的选题依据。中国的金融体系对房地产财富效应有何影响?房屋价格变动对不同地区、不同收入水平的消费者有何影响?房屋租赁价格变动是否能够发挥财产性收入促进居民消费的功能?老龄化社会发展趋势下,房屋价格变动对老年人口消费有何影响?从理论与实证两方面来探讨、分析这些问题具有理论与现实意义,也构成了本文的研究主线。
本文的贡献既包括理论研究也包括实证研究,第一,在研究房地产财富效应时,首先分析了不同金融体系对房地产财富效应的影响,结合中国实际,从理论上预测中国的房地产财富效应大小。第二,探讨了不同年龄人群与房地产财富效应的关系,阐述老龄化社会背景下,如何利用房地产财富效应促进居民消费。
以上两点是本文的理论创新,本文在实证方面的贡献包括三点。首先,在研究全国房屋销售价格对居民消费影响的基础上,选取典型地区进行比较分析,研究不同地域的房地产财富效应大小。其次,选取按收入等级分组的收入消费数据,运用面板数据分析方法,研究房屋销售价格变动对不同收入水平人口的影响。最后,在考察现阶段城镇居民财产性收入的基础上,分析全国房屋租赁价格变动和地区房屋租赁价格变动对城镇居民消费的影响。
全文共分七章,第一章为导论,主要介绍本文的选题背景与意义、研究方法、论文结构以及文章的创新与不足。
第二章为文献回顾部分,在介绍消费函数理论的发展演变后,阐述了本文选取的消费函数;尔后介绍了有关国内外房地产财富效应的研究成果。
第三章从理论上分析了金融体系对房地产财富效应的影响。在比较分析不同金融体系国家住房金融市场的特征和资产证券化金融创新的基础上,指出由于资产证券化的引入和发展,市场主导型金融体系比银行主导型金融体系更能促进房地产财富效应功能的发挥。而中国现阶段属于典型的银行主导型金融体系,所以,必然对房地产财富效应有明显的制约。
第四章实证检验了中国房屋销售价格变动对城镇居民消费的影响。利用年度数据和季度数据分别对全国和典型城市的居民消费进行回归分析和协整检验,得出现阶段房屋销售价格变动对中国城镇居民消费(除个别城市外)没有显著影响的结论。对不同收入水平人口的面板数据分析也得出了相同的结论。
第五章实证检验了中国房屋租赁价格变动对城镇居民消费的影响。无论是年度数据研究,还是季度数据研究,均显示房屋租赁收入变动对城镇居民消费有显著的影响。
第六章从理论上分析了人口年龄及其结构对房地产财富效应的影响。在介绍国外实证研究文献的基础上,得出老年房主对房产价格变动最为敏感的结论,指出在老龄化社会背景下,中国应充分发挥房地产财富效应的功能,实施住房反向抵押贷款试点,在创新养老模式的同时,还可以提高居民消费率水平。
最后一章对全文进行总结。金融体系和人口因素均对房地产财富效应有显著的影响,应加速金融体系市场化改革步伐,加快资产证券化试点工作,为发挥房地产财富效应功能创造条件,为提高中国居民消费率开辟一条新渠道。
Since 1980s, the change of asset prices, such as that of stocks and houses, plays a larger and larger role in the influence of the state's macro economy and consumption under market economy, and draws much attention of the economists all over the world. Along with the housing system marketization reform in 1998 in China, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy, and one of the important sources to expend domestic demand so as to promote economic growth. Meanwhile, the consumption rate of the Chinese residents tends to decrease year by year recently. International experiences show that the increase of property price in some countries as Britain and the United States have increased the consumption rate in different degrees. Many foreign researches show that the increase of asset price of houses gives an independent and positive push to the household consumption, excluding the influence of income on consumption, that is, the wealth effect of the real estate industry increases household consumption. Foreign studies on house price and consumption relations have achieved successful results, from theoretical analysis at the beginning to empirical test and prediction, from the analysis of one country to the comparison of countries with different financial systems, from the study of single consumer populations to the populations with various ages. These researches provide good examples for the study of Chinese residential consumption problems, following the international study and combining with the actual of China could help make useful results and suggest relative policies.
Domestic studies of houses asset price and household consumption just concentrate on the influence of price changes on the total consumers, there is still a long way to go. This is also the purpose of the study. What is the influence of Chinese financial system on the wealth effect of real estate industry? What is the influence of house price changes on consumers living in different areas and having different income? Whether the house lease price changes could exert its function as property income to promote household consumption? With the development of aging society, what is the influence of house price changes on the consumption of aged population? Discussing and analyzing these problems from theoretical and empirical aspects have theoretical and practical significance, and forms the leading clue of this paper.
The contribution of this paper includes both theoretical and empirical study. First, in the study of wealth effect of the real estate industry, it first analyses the influence of different financial systems on wealth effect of the real estate industry, then combining with the actual of China, it theoretically predicts how large the wealth effect of the real estate industry in China is. Second, it discusses the relationship between people with different ages and the wealth effect of the real estate industry, and describes how to use the wealth effect of the real estate industry to promote household consumption in aging society.
The two points above are theoretical innovations, this paper contributes three points in empirical aspect. First, on the basis of the influence of national house selling price on household consumption, it selects typical areas to make comparative analysis and studies the wealth effect of the real estate industry in different areas. Then, according to those income and consumption data grouped by income level, it studies the influence of the house selling price changes on the population with different income level using panel data analysis method. At last, on the study of property income of urban residents at present, it analyses the influence of national house selling price changes and regional house selling price changes on urban residential consumption.
This paper has seven chapters. Chapter One is introduction, it introduces the background, significance, research method, paper structure and the innovations and shortcomings of this paper.
Chapter Two is the literature review, after the introduction of consumption function theory, it describes the consumption function this paper chooses; Then it introduces the research results about wealth effect of the real estate industry both home and abroad.
Chapter Three analyses the influence of financial system on wealth effect of the real estate industry. After the comparative study of housing financial market and financial innovations of asset securitization, it points out that, with the introduction and development of asset securitization, market - based financial system could better promote to exert the function of wealth effect of the real estate industry than the bank -based financial system. And now, China belongs to the typical bank - based financial system, which must has obviously limited the wealth effect of the real estate industry
Chapter Four makes an empirical test on the influence of house selling price changes on urban residential consumption. Using annual data and quarterly data respectively to make regression analysis and cointegration examination on the household consumption in the country and in the typical areas, and concludes that house selling price changes at present has no significant influence on urban residential consumption in China (excluding some cities). The panel data analysis on different income level also gets the same conclusion.
Chapter Five makes an empirical test on the influence of house lease price changes in China on urban residential consumption. Both annual data study and quarterly data study show that house lease price changes have significant influence on urban residential consumption.
Chapter Six analyses the influence of population age and population structure on the wealth effect of the real estate industry. After introducing empirical study abroad, it concludes that the aged house owner are more sensitive to house price changes, and points out that China should fully exert the function of wealth effect of the real estate industry, implement housing reverse mortgage loan pilots, innovate pension model and promote residential consumption rate.
The last chapter is the conclusion. Both financial system and population factor have significant influence on wealth effect of the real estate industry, it is urgent to accelerate financial system market marketization reform and asset securitization pilot to create conditions for exerting the function of wealth effect of the real estate industry, and open up a new way for promoting residential consumption rate in China.
引文
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