摘要
淮河是我国七大江河之一,洪泽湖位于淮河干流中游末端,承接上中游15.8万km~2流域面积的汇水,是淮河中下游调节水量的重要枢纽。国务院明确要求洪泽湖大堤在任何情况下必须确保安全。洪泽湖的防洪安全,对于江苏省淮河下游地区而言,具有极为重要的意义。作为防汛指挥决策的重要非工程措施之一,开展洪水预报调度系统的研究,无疑是一项十分必要、也十分迫切的工作。本文就此进行了尝试,并取得了较好的成果。
在分析研究洪泽湖以上流域气象、水文特性的基础上,选择使用了新安江三水源模型,建立了洪泽湖以上流域实时洪水预报模型。针对流域面积大、下垫面条件空间分布不均、水利工程调度运用对降雨径流规律影响大等具体问题,在模型中采用了划分子流域、充分利用实测水文资料从部分到整体依次率定参数、将专家经验数值化纳入模型计算、增加人机交互等方法。成功地建立了适用于大流域的降雨径流预报模型。
本文充分分析了防汛指挥决策对调度系统的应用需求,进行了概化和模拟。在模型研究的基础上,对预报、调度系统进行了集成,成功构建了“洪泽湖洪水预报调度应用系统”。系统在抗御2002年淮河中等洪水、特别是2003年淮河建国以来第二位大洪水中发挥了重要作用。
针对系统存在的不足,结合应用实践和未来社会、技术的发展,对系统的改进与发展提出了建议。
The Huaihe River is one of the greatest rivers in China. The Hongze Lake, located at the end of the middle Huaihe River, receives water confluence from a watershed area of 158 thousand km2 on the upper and lower Huaihe River, and acts as the junction of water volume regulation for the middle and lower Huaihe River. Accordingly, the State Department gave a specific instruction to ensure the safety of the Hongzehu Levee. In fact, the safety of flood control of the Hongze Lake is of great significances to the lower Huaihe River in Jiangsu Province. Therefore, the implementation of the study on the flood forecast and regulation system-an important nonstructural measure for decision making in flood control, is no doubt to be a necessary and urgent work. In this paper, some attempts have been made, and some satisfactory results have been achieved.Based on the meteorologic and hydrological characteristic of the upper Hongze Lake, a real-time flood forecast model was developed for this area by use of the three-water source model of the Xin'anjiang River. In consideration of some specific problems, such as the large watershed area, the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of underlying surfaces, and great influences of hydro projects on the regularity of rainfall runoff, some methods were adopted in the present model, including the division of subcatchments, calibration of parameters by full use of the measured hydrological data, introduction of experts' experiential data to model calculation, and also the man-machine interaction method. In this way, a rainfall runoff forecast model for large river basins was established.A comprehensive analysis shows that the flood control decision-making depends on the application of the operation system. In this work, the process of decision-making was generalized and simulated. With combination of the forecast system and operation system, a flood forecast and operation application system for the Hongze Lake was successfully constructed. The system played an important role in successful control of 2002's moderate flood of the Huaihe River, especially 2003's Huaihe River flood-the second greatest flood since the foundation of the People's Republic of China.Finally, some suggestions have been made about the improvement of the present system and its further development.
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