基于人口转型现实对跨越“中等收入陷阱”途径的探索——统一增长理论视角
|
摘要
人口规模(或有效劳动规模)和技术进步的关系有助于解释经济发展不同阶段的内生转型:在"马氏陷阱"阶段,农业生产技术缓慢提高,伴随着人口逐渐增长,市场也逐步扩大,使得工业企业能承担更大的固定(创新)成本,生产创新就此启动,人类摆脱了"马氏陷阱";但经济发展到一定阶段后,又面临人口转型,可能会陷入"中等收入陷阱",此时不能再依靠单纯的人口数量增长,而是需要人力资本积累以增加有效劳动规模,进一步促进工业企业的创新,从而为摆脱"中等收入陷阱"奠定基础。有效劳动规模的扩大不再仅通过正向外溢性促进技术进步,而是通过降低工业企业的创新成本直接加快技术进步。通过建立包含农业生产(服务业)部门、工业生产部门、家庭部门和政府的四部门两
The relationship between the population (or effective labor) scale and technical progress will help to explain the transition of different stages of economic development: in the "Malthusian Trap" stage, the technology of agricultural production increased slowly, the population also increased gradually, the market expanded gradually, so the industrial enterprises can afford greater fixed (innovation) cost, production innovation started, human get rid of the " Malthusian trap"; After a certain stage of economic development, it would also face demographic transition, and fall into the "middle income trap", this time could no longer rely on population growth simply, but on the accumulation of human capital to increase the scale of effective labor,and further promote the innovation of industrial enterprises, thus to lay the foundation for getting rid of the"middle income trap". The expansion of the scale of effective labor would not only promote technological progress through positive spillovers, but also speed up technological progress directly by reducing the cost of innovation of industrial enterprises. Based on the establishment of the two period overlapping generations model including four departments (agricultural production (service) department, industry department, household sector and government), the results of numerical simulation analysis showed that adequately prolonging the period of labor, reducing the contribution rate of the old-age security account in the aged and the degree of bequest were beneficial to encourage the residents to increase their labor supply, accumulate human capital,and then promote technological progress, and finally get rid of the growth trap.
The relationship between the population (or effective labor) scale and technical progress will help to explain the transition of different stages of economic development: in the "Malthusian Trap" stage, the technology of agricultural production increased slowly, the population also increased gradually, the market expanded gradually, so the industrial enterprises can afford greater fixed (innovation) cost, production innovation started, human get rid of the " Malthusian trap"; After a certain stage of economic development, it would also face demographic transition, and fall into the "middle income trap", this time could no longer rely on population growth simply, but on the accumulation of human capital to increase the scale of effective labor,and further promote the innovation of industrial enterprises, thus to lay the foundation for getting rid of the"middle income trap". The expansion of the scale of effective labor would not only promote technological progress through positive spillovers, but also speed up technological progress directly by reducing the cost of innovation of industrial enterprises. Based on the establishment of the two period overlapping generations model including four departments (agricultural production (service) department, industry department, household sector and government), the results of numerical simulation analysis showed that adequately prolonging the period of labor, reducing the contribution rate of the old-age security account in the aged and the degree of bequest were beneficial to encourage the residents to increase their labor supply, accumulate human capital,and then promote technological progress, and finally get rid of the growth trap.
引文
[1]GALOR O.From stagnation to growth:Unified growth theory[M]//Handbook of Economic Growth.Amsterdam:Elsevier B.V,2005.
[2]GALOR O,MOAV O.From physical to human capital accumulation:Inequality and the process of development[J].Review of Economic Studies,2004,71(4):1001-1026.
[3]BARRO R J,BECKER G S.Fertility choice in a model of economic growth[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):481-501.
[4]BOUCEKKINE R,DE LA CROIX D,LICANDRO O.Early mortality declines at the dawn of modern growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):401-418.
[5]STRULIK H,WEISDORF J.How child costs and survival shaped the Industrial Revolution and the demographic transition:Atheoretical inquiry[J].Macroeconomic Dynamics,2014,18(1):114-144.
[6]SOARES R R.The demographic transition and the sexual division of labor[C]//Meeting Papers.Society for Economic Dynamics,2015.
[7]GOODFRIEND M,MCDERMOTT J.Early development[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(1):116-133.
[8]JONES C I.Was an industrial revolution inevitable?Economic growth over the very long run[C]//National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc,2001.
[9]VOIGTLNDER N,VOTH H J.Why England?Demographic factors,structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2006,11(4):319-361.
[10]GAUTSCHI D A,LANCASTER K.Variety,equity,and efficiency[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1980,17(3):403.
[11]ATTANASIO O P.Chapter 11 Consumption[M]//Handbook of Macroeconomics,1999,1(Part B).Amsterdam:Elsevier,1999.
[12]JAIMOVICH N,FLOETOTTO M.Firm dynamics,markup variations,and the business cycle[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2008,55(7):1238-1252.
[13]BERMAN E,BOUND J,GRILICHES Z.Changes in the demand for skilled labor within U.S.manufacturing:Evidence from the annual survey of manufactures[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(2):367-397.
[14]DESMET K,PARENTE S L.The evolution of markets and the revolution of industry:a unified theory of growth[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2012,17(3):205-234.
(1)本文依据各国(地区)以美元计价的人均收入占美国人均收入的百分比来定义收入分组(图1再将此百分比取自然对数):“低收入国家或地区”:≤8%(ln8=2.08);“中等收入国家或地区”:8%<~≤45%(ln45=3.81);“高收入国家或地区”:>45%。
(2)在由横纵两组ln8和ln45直线划分的三行三列中,首先,处于中间列的国家或地区表示的是1960年时处于中等收入国家或地区组;然后,再将此中间列细分:处于上行的是2014年时已步入高收入组的国家或地区(13个)、处于中间行的是仍处于中等收入组的国家或地区(33个)、处于下行的是跌入低收入组的国家或地区(12个)。另外,就所有113个国家或地区整体而言,收入相对下降(即处于45度线以下)的国家或地区共有45个。
(3)步入高收入组的国家或地区工业化起始年份:中国香港、爱尔兰、葡萄牙,1950;塞浦路斯、西班牙、希腊、意大利、日本、马耳他、新加坡、塞舌尔,1960;中国台湾,1970;特立尼达和多巴哥,1980。仍处于中等收入组的国家或地区工业产值占GDP比重计算的起点取以上年份的中位值1965年。
(4)即第一个下标表示生存的时期,第二个下标表示处于青年期(取0值)或老年期(取1值)。以下类似的二维下标都有同样的含义。
(5)数据来源:根据CEIC数据库(China Economic&Industry Data Database,https://insights.ceicdata.com/insight/34dfa752-27ba-46b3-b2fb-080864cffd89/data)相关数据计算而得。
(6)数据来源:中国经济与社会发展统计数据库(http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/index.aspx)。60岁以后的工作年限-60
(7)老年期的劳动时间比例lt+1,1=。预期寿命76-60
(7)2015年10月14日,人社部部长尹蔚民介绍了“十二五”以来就业和社会保障工作成就,称中国是目前世界上退休年龄最早的国家,平均退休年龄不到55岁。(http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2015-10/15/content_602796.htm?div=-1)。
(8)将最高年龄段的收入设为100,计算其他年龄段的收入占其比重而得。
[2]GALOR O,MOAV O.From physical to human capital accumulation:Inequality and the process of development[J].Review of Economic Studies,2004,71(4):1001-1026.
[3]BARRO R J,BECKER G S.Fertility choice in a model of economic growth[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):481-501.
[4]BOUCEKKINE R,DE LA CROIX D,LICANDRO O.Early mortality declines at the dawn of modern growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):401-418.
[5]STRULIK H,WEISDORF J.How child costs and survival shaped the Industrial Revolution and the demographic transition:Atheoretical inquiry[J].Macroeconomic Dynamics,2014,18(1):114-144.
[6]SOARES R R.The demographic transition and the sexual division of labor[C]//Meeting Papers.Society for Economic Dynamics,2015.
[7]GOODFRIEND M,MCDERMOTT J.Early development[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(1):116-133.
[8]JONES C I.Was an industrial revolution inevitable?Economic growth over the very long run[C]//National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc,2001.
[9]VOIGTLNDER N,VOTH H J.Why England?Demographic factors,structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2006,11(4):319-361.
[10]GAUTSCHI D A,LANCASTER K.Variety,equity,and efficiency[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1980,17(3):403.
[11]ATTANASIO O P.Chapter 11 Consumption[M]//Handbook of Macroeconomics,1999,1(Part B).Amsterdam:Elsevier,1999.
[12]JAIMOVICH N,FLOETOTTO M.Firm dynamics,markup variations,and the business cycle[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2008,55(7):1238-1252.
[13]BERMAN E,BOUND J,GRILICHES Z.Changes in the demand for skilled labor within U.S.manufacturing:Evidence from the annual survey of manufactures[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(2):367-397.
[14]DESMET K,PARENTE S L.The evolution of markets and the revolution of industry:a unified theory of growth[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2012,17(3):205-234.
(1)本文依据各国(地区)以美元计价的人均收入占美国人均收入的百分比来定义收入分组(图1再将此百分比取自然对数):“低收入国家或地区”:≤8%(ln8=2.08);“中等收入国家或地区”:8%<~≤45%(ln45=3.81);“高收入国家或地区”:>45%。
(2)在由横纵两组ln8和ln45直线划分的三行三列中,首先,处于中间列的国家或地区表示的是1960年时处于中等收入国家或地区组;然后,再将此中间列细分:处于上行的是2014年时已步入高收入组的国家或地区(13个)、处于中间行的是仍处于中等收入组的国家或地区(33个)、处于下行的是跌入低收入组的国家或地区(12个)。另外,就所有113个国家或地区整体而言,收入相对下降(即处于45度线以下)的国家或地区共有45个。
(3)步入高收入组的国家或地区工业化起始年份:中国香港、爱尔兰、葡萄牙,1950;塞浦路斯、西班牙、希腊、意大利、日本、马耳他、新加坡、塞舌尔,1960;中国台湾,1970;特立尼达和多巴哥,1980。仍处于中等收入组的国家或地区工业产值占GDP比重计算的起点取以上年份的中位值1965年。
(4)即第一个下标表示生存的时期,第二个下标表示处于青年期(取0值)或老年期(取1值)。以下类似的二维下标都有同样的含义。
(5)数据来源:根据CEIC数据库(China Economic&Industry Data Database,https://insights.ceicdata.com/insight/34dfa752-27ba-46b3-b2fb-080864cffd89/data)相关数据计算而得。
(6)数据来源:中国经济与社会发展统计数据库(http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/index.aspx)。60岁以后的工作年限-60
(7)老年期的劳动时间比例lt+1,1=。预期寿命76-60
(7)2015年10月14日,人社部部长尹蔚民介绍了“十二五”以来就业和社会保障工作成就,称中国是目前世界上退休年龄最早的国家,平均退休年龄不到55岁。(http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2015-10/15/content_602796.htm?div=-1)。
(8)将最高年龄段的收入设为100,计算其他年龄段的收入占其比重而得。